A carregar...
Projeto de investigação
Energy System Modelling for Transition to a net-Zero 2050 for EU via REPowerEU
Financiador
Autores
Publicações
Iberian Electricity Market Performance under European Energy Transition Scenarios for 2050
Publication . Sousa, Vivian; Couto, António; Graça, Pedro; Estanqueiro, Ana; Löffler, Konstantin; Moskalenko, Nikita
ABSTRACT: The Man0EUvRE project analyses the required energy transition in Europe, extending beyond typical scenarios focused only on renewable integration pace by incorporating key uncertainties such as geopolitical fragmentation, limited
cooperation, and technological innovation. This study evaluates the performance of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL)
between 2030 and 2050 under four distinct scenarios. Long-term capacity expansion is modelled with GENeSYS-MOD, while hourly day-ahead market clearing prices are simulated using PyMIBEL-DAM, capturing both strategic investment decisions and operational dynamics. The results highlight strong growth of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) through 2050, particularly solar photovoltaic, and the resulting price cannibalisation that challenges the conomic viability of solar generation in a market environment. Wind generation, in contrast, maintains more stable capture prices showing differences in the market value across vRES technologies. Therefore, a carefully designed transition pathway, by integrating a balanced generation mix, robust flexibility solutions, and reinforced cross-border interconnections between Portugal and Spain, is essential. Such integration will provide the necessary market signals for sustainable decarbonisation of the Iberian power system while ensuring overall system efficiency.
Assessing the Market Value of Power Forecasting of Hybrid Power Plants in the Iberian Electricity Market
Publication . Couto, António; Graça, Pedro; Sousa, Vivian; Estanqueiro, Ana
ABSTRACT: This study evaluates the technical and economic performance of wind power plants hybridised with solar photovoltaic (PV) under two 2030 Iberian electricity market scenarios dominated by renewable energy, developed within the Man0EUvRE project. A power forecasting model was optimised to maximise their market value, considering participation in both day-ahead and balancing markets. Compared to wind-only power plants, hybridisation improves forecast accuracy due to the complementary generation profiles of wind and solar PV. As a result, revenue losses due to imbalance penalties decrease by 1528%, enabling the prices captured to increase by up to 6%. The hybrid configurations also achieved the highest market remuneration. However, as the share of low marginal cost technologies increases in the electricity markets, captured prices are expected to decline. These results demonstrate the benefits of hybridising the existing wind power plants, which can provide a short-term and efficient solution to support the ambitious European decarbonisation targets while enhancing both operational performance and their market value.
Unidades organizacionais
Descrição
Palavras-chave
energy transition,energy system modelling,electricty markets,dispatch models,
Contribuidores
Financiadores
Entidade financiadora
Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P.
Programa de financiamento
CETP Concurso Transnacional Conjunto 2022
Número da atribuição
CETP/0001/2022