ATESTA - Active Tectonics and Earthquake Scenarios for the Lower Tagus Valley

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Characterization of an Intraplate Seismogenic Zone Using Geophysical and Borehole Data: The Vila Franca de Xira Fault, Portugal

Publication . Carvalho, João; Alves, Daniela; Cabral, João; Ghose, Ranajit; Borges, José Fernando; Dias, Ruben Pereira; Ramalho, Elsa; Caldeira, Bento; Casacão, J.; Leote, Jaime

ABSTRACT: The Vila Franca de Xira (VFX) fault is a regional fault zone located about 25 km northeast of Lisbon, affecting Neogene sediments. Recent shear-wave seismic studies show that this complex fault zone is buried beneath Holocene sediments and is deforming the alluvial cover, in agreement with a previous work that proposes the fault as the source of the 1531 Lower Tagus Valley earthquake. In this work, we corroborate these results using S-wave, P-wave, geoelectric, ground-penetrating radar and borehole data, confirming that the sediments deformed by several fault branches are of Upper Pleistocene to Holocene. Accumulated fault vertical offsets of about 3 m are estimated from the integrated interpretation of geophysical and borehole data, including 2D elastic seismic modeling, with an estimated resolution of about 0.5 m. The deformations affecting the Tagus alluvial sediments probably resulted from surface or near-surface rupture of the VFX fault during M similar to 7 earthquakes, reinforcing the fault as the seismogenic source of regional historical events, as in 1531, and highlighting the need for preparedness for the next event.

2020Journal article

Open access

High-resolution P- and S-wave reflection studies of an intraplate structure: The Azambuja fault, Portugal

Publication . Ghose, Ranajit; Carvalho, João; Alves, Daniela; Santos, Luiz Alberto; Ressurreição, Ricardo; Alves, Paulo Henrique Bastos; Leote, Jaime

ABSTRACT: The Azambuja fault is a NNE trending structure located 50 km north of Lisbon, the capital and most populous city of Portugal. The fault has been considered as a possible source for the historical, large earthquakes. Under-standing this fault is a priority in seismic hazard evaluation of this region. The fault has a clear morphological signature. Miocene and Pliocene sediments are tilted eastward and cut by steeply dipping mesoscale fault seg-ments, presenting reverse and normal offsets with a net downthrow to the east. Neotectonic studies indicate a Quaternary slip on the fault of 0.05-0.06 mm/year. However, no direct evidence of the Azambuja fault affecting the Pleistocene or Holocene sediments was found so far. Here, we present the findings from high-resolution seismic reflection studies using both P-and S-waves over the Holocene deposits. The detection of small-throw faulting in ductile sediments is a challenging task. We show that multiple signatures, like perturbations in the reflection hyperbolae visible in shot and CMP gathers, interruptions of reflectors in stacked sections, lateral seismic velocity variations obtained by horizon velocity analysis, all at coincident locations, strongly suggest that the activity of the Azambuja fault has affected the Holocene sediments in the study area. The lateral velocity variations are corroborated by wavepath eikonal traveltime tomography and velocity analysis supported by seismic modeling. By means of 2D viscoelastic modeling, we explain the absence of fault-related diffractions and negligible back-scattered energy from the fault. Using data from nearby boreholes, we find that the 15 ka old alluvium cover has indeed been disturbed by the presence of shallow fault strands. Considering the estimated vertical throws and the empirical relationships between fault length, co-seismic rupture and magnitude, a slip rate of 0.07 mm/y, slightly larger than previously thought, is expected for this fault.

2023-07Journal article

Open access

Reappraisal of active tectonics of the Porto Alto buried fault zone (Portugal) considering new geophysical shallow studies

Publication . Carvalho, João; Cabral, João; Ghose, Ranajit; Borges, José Fernando; Dias, Ruben

ABSTRACT: The Lower Tagus Valley area (LTV), where Lisbon is located, has been affected by several destructive, M 6+ earthquakes whose sources remain to be determined. The identification of expectable surface or near surface ruptures in the area is a challenging task that requires a multidisciplinary analysis that includes geophysical techniques, as the source faults are mainly buried despite likely to deform Upper Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial cover of the Tagus River. This paper focuses on the characterization of the Porto Alto fault zone for seismic hazard mitigation purposes. The Porto Alto fault zone was recognized in oil-industry P-wave 1980’s seismic reflection data as an important, Miocene reactivated, deep structure in the LTV. Highresolution P-wave seismic reflection data were later acquired in the early 2000’s to investigate related Holocene fault activity, leading to the identification of a shallow fault zone near the surface. However, the vertical resolution of the acquired P-wave seismic reflection data was considered insufficient to corroborate any presumably small vertical offset related to fault rupture in the ca. 50 m thick alluvium cover. Trenching for the recognition and characterization of surface faulting was previously tested in the study region but it proved to be a challenging and poorly efficient methodology due to the very shallow water table (at ~1 m) and low cohesion of the sediments. Due to these constraints, we revisited the former fault study site to acquire higher resolution S-wave seismic and ground penetrating radar (GPR) data. The new seismic profiles show interruption of the reflectors in the stacked sections. Diffracted energy, changes in amplitude/shape of the reflection hyperbolae in the shot gathers and spatially coincident low velocity anomalies, also indicate the presence of several shallow fault strands deeper than 10 m. The GPR profile, overlapping and extending the seismic profiles in 30 m reaches a maximum investigation depth of about 15 m and shows the presence of deformation at three locations, one of which matches with one of the fault strands detected in the high resolution S-wave seismic data. In this profile, sediment disruption was detected extending upwards to a depth as shallow as ca. 3.5 m, corresponding to alluvium with a poorly constrained age of ca. 2,300 yrs. Slip rate, maximum earthquake magnitude and recurrence, and other parameters are also estimated for the Porto Alto fault zone. These recently acquired seismic and GPR datasets indicate that there were at most three to five maximum earthquakes generated by the fault in the last 13,100 years, with an average recurrence of approximately 4,400 to 2,600 years respectively. However, the data show a grouping of these earthquakes in time, the first two in the period 13,100-12,300 years, separated by about 800 years, and the third or the last grouped three having occurred in the past 2,300 years with a similar average recurrence time of ca. 800 years. However, the regional historical and instrumental seismicity does not show an obvious link of any known major earthquake with the Porto Alto fault zone.

2025-05Journal article

Open access