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Projeto de investigação
Clean Energy Transition Partnership
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Exploring the offshore wind and wave generation complementarity in Portugal for a sustainable and resilient power system
Publication . Couto, António; Justino, Paulo Alexandre; Costa, Paula Silva; Simões, Teresa; Estanqueiro, Ana
ABSTRACT: Exploring variable energy sources generation complementarity can, among several benefits, help in the reduction of the negative impacts of variability from individual sources, and lower the system’s flexibility requirements. This study focuses on the complementarity between offshore wind and wave energy aiming to identify its overall value to the power system. Using Portugal as a case study, this work examines two offshore regions of the Plan for the Allocation of Offshore Renewable Energy in Portugal using standard approaches to assess the level of complementarity. The findings show a clear seasonal mismatch in the summer between wind and wave energy, which supports their complementary nature and helps smooth out seasonal fluctuations in offshore renewable generation. The results indicate that wave energy brings value to diversifying the offshore energy mix. When compared with onshore renewable generation, the combined use of offshore wind and wave power significantly enhances the stability of energy supply, reduces extreme events, which can contribute to decrease the need for additional system flexibility in future nearly 100% renewable-based power systems.
Man0EUvRE: Energy System Modelling for Transition to a net-Zero 2050 for EU via REPowerEU: Deliverable 3.1 Executive Summaries of Case Studies
Publication . Esmaeili Aliabadi, Danial; Mantilla, Carlos; Lechón, Yolanda; Haaskjold, Kristina; Arvesen, Anders; Baldauf, Thomas; Eschmann, Jonas; Kochems, Johannes; Gutjahr, Sandra Franziska; Kirkil, Gokhan; Kaltsas, Ilias; Kannavou, Maria; Charousset-Brignol, Sandrine; Couto, António; Estanqueiro, Ana; Barani, Mostafa; Löffler, Konstantin; Nienhaus, Kristina; Belsnes, Michael Martin; Mathisen, Siri
ABSTRACT: This document is related to Deliverable 3.1 of the Man0EUvRE project, in which we report modelling activities of nine case studies from various countries. Each case study addresses a question from a regional perspective while considering the general assumptions of the consortium through established scenarios. We follow a consistent reporting format across all case studies, allowing readers who are interested in a specific region or question to skip other cases without losing essential context. Based on our preliminary findings, European energy systems across the case studies collectively show that Europe can become both self-reliant and an exporter of low-carbon energy carriers if policies and investments unlock regional strengths and the right flexibility instruments are put in place. Southern states with abundant solar energy (e.g., Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey) can scale renewables and electrolysis. Scandinavia’s hydropower offers system-scale flexibility that stabilises high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration, and cross-model comparisons demonstrate that combining broad, cross-sectoral modelling with detailed power-system studies reveals complementary roles for exports, seasonal storage and short-term balancing. Studies of Germany and Hungary underline the critical role of dispatchable, negative-emission options—such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)—to avoid reliance on fossil backstops, while agent-based macroeconomic results show that changing global energy factor prices will reshape (not necessarily hollow out) industrial activity.
Iberian Electricity Market Performance under European Energy Transition Scenarios for 2050
Publication . Sousa, Vivian; Couto, António; Graça, Pedro; Estanqueiro, Ana; Löffler, Konstantin; Moskalenko, Nikita
ABSTRACT: The Man0EUvRE project analyses the required energy transition in Europe, extending beyond typical scenarios focused only on renewable integration pace by incorporating key uncertainties such as geopolitical fragmentation, limited
cooperation, and technological innovation. This study evaluates the performance of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL)
between 2030 and 2050 under four distinct scenarios. Long-term capacity expansion is modelled with GENeSYS-MOD, while hourly day-ahead market clearing prices are simulated using PyMIBEL-DAM, capturing both strategic investment decisions and operational dynamics. The results highlight strong growth of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) through 2050, particularly solar photovoltaic, and the resulting price cannibalisation that challenges the conomic viability of solar generation in a market environment. Wind generation, in contrast, maintains more stable capture prices showing differences in the market value across vRES technologies. Therefore, a carefully designed transition pathway, by integrating a balanced generation mix, robust flexibility solutions, and reinforced cross-border interconnections between Portugal and Spain, is essential. Such integration will provide the necessary market signals for sustainable decarbonisation of the Iberian power system while ensuring overall system efficiency.
Assessing the Market Value of Power Forecasting of Hybrid Power Plants in the Iberian Electricity Market
Publication . Couto, António; Graça, Pedro; Sousa, Vivian; Estanqueiro, Ana
ABSTRACT: This study evaluates the technical and economic performance of wind power plants hybridised with solar photovoltaic (PV) under two 2030 Iberian electricity market scenarios dominated by renewable energy, developed within the Man0EUvRE project. A power forecasting model was optimised to maximise their market value, considering participation in both day-ahead and balancing markets. Compared to wind-only power plants, hybridisation improves forecast accuracy due to the complementary generation profiles of wind and solar PV. As a result, revenue losses due to imbalance penalties decrease by 1528%, enabling the prices captured to increase by up to 6%. The hybrid configurations also achieved the highest market remuneration. However, as the share of low marginal cost technologies increases in the electricity markets, captured prices are expected to decline. These results demonstrate the benefits of hybridising the existing wind power plants, which can provide a short-term and efficient solution to support the ambitious European decarbonisation targets while enhancing both operational performance and their market value.
Man0EUvRE: Deliverable 3.1: Executive Summaries of Case Studies
Publication . Esmaeili Aliabadi, Danial; Mantilla, Carlos; Lechón, Yolanda; Haaskjold, Kristina; Sazon, Thor Alexis; Seljom, Pernille; Forsberg, Jonas; Krook Riekkola, Anna; Arvesen, Anders; Mathisen, Siri; Belsnes, Michael Martin; Nienhaus, Kristina; Baldauf, Thomas; Eschmann, Jonas; Kochems, Johannes; Gutjahr, Sandra Franziska; Kirkil, Gokhan; Kaltsas, Ilias; Kannavou, Maria; Charousset-Brignol, Sandrine; Couto, António; Estanqueiro, Ana; Sousa, Viviane; Graça, Pedro; Barani, Mostafa; Löffler, Konstantin
ABSTRACT: European energy systems across the case studies collectively show that Europe can become both self-reliant and an exporter of low-carbon energy carriers if policies and investments unlock regional strengths and the right flexibility instruments are put in place. Southern states with abundant solar energy (e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey) can scale renewables and electrolysis. Scandinavia’s hydropower offers system-scale flexibility that stabilises high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration, and cross-model comparisons demonstrate that combining broad, cross-sectoral modelling with detailed power-system studies reveals complementary roles for exports, seasonal storage and short-term balancing. Studies of Germany and Hungary underline the critical role of dispatchable, negative-emission options—such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)—to avoid reliance on fossil backstops, while agent-based macroeconomic results show that changing global energy factor prices will reshape (not necessarily hollow out) industrial activity.
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Entidade financiadora
European Commission
Programa de financiamento
HORIZON Programme Cofund Actions
Número da atribuição
101069750