Sustainable Transformative Transitions (Sus2Trans)— Conciliate Accelerated Low Carbon Transitions with System Transformations

Publications

Critical transitions: Unpacking decarbonization strategies in Portuguese industry and regional disparities

Publication . Vale, Mário; Alves, Tiago; Duarte de Castro Fontes, Maria Margarida; Mamede, Ricardo; Bento, Nuno

ABSTRACT: In the wake of the Paris Agreement, the urgency for decarbonization has intensified globally, prompting varied responses from different regions and sectors. This study critically examines the uneven decarbonization trajectories of Portuguese firms within the framework of the Portugal 2020 (PT2020) program, informed by transition theory and regional innovation systems. Employing a multi-method approach that combines natural language processing and a systematic literature review, we identify and categorize the decarbonization strategies of 278 out of 2,793 firms funded by PT2020 between 2020 and 2023. Our findings reveal a modest (less than 10 % of all projects) but pivotal engagement in decarbonization, predominantly focused on the Porto metropolitan area and adjacent regions, indicating a pattern of uneven geographical transitions. Larger, established firms predominantly undertake these initiatives, reflecting a skew in policy effectiveness towards more stable entities. The most common pathways—demand and co-benefits (49 %) and decarbonization of electricity (34 %)—suggest a preference for immediately actionable strategies (electrification of uses and technological breakthroughs). This study underscores the disparity in decarbonization efforts across firms, but also regions, correlating higher industrial productivity and urbanization with increased activity. Such trends reveal the influence of existing economic structures and regional capacities on the adoption of green technologies, which exacerbate regional inequalities in the face of global decarbonization mandates. This study improves the understanding on the potential of decarbonization to increase or decrease inequalities among companies and regions. It provides crucial lessons for policies aiming to accelerate decarbonization to achieve the 2030 goals. Further research is required to explore the impact of regional specialization on decarbonization strategies and to develop more inclusive and equitable policies.

2024Book part

Open access

Winds of change: the potential path disturbing effect induced by the offshore wind energy technology

Publication . Fontes, Margarida; Santos, Hélder; Torres, Marcelo

ABSTRACT: Path development literature focus on path creation or on changes in mature paths but gives limited attention to early path evolution. The paper addresses this gap by investigating the disturbance, in the early trajectory of technology-driven regional industrial paths, that results from the emergence of new generations of technology. We propose that changes in actor composition and purposeful resource modification actions by path actors are important elements of disturbance and develop an approach to investigate their effects. The ongoing changes in the wind energy regional industrial path, associated with the development and diffusion of offshore wind energy technology, are empirically investigated. The research finds evidence of path disturbing effects at the level of actors and resources. As onshore wind actors start engaging in offshore activities and new actors enter the wind business, the composition and industrial structure of the wind energy regional path and its spatial distribution start to change. There are equally important effects upon the process of resource formation, at the level of knowledge, market, financial and legitimacy system resources and across the various phases of the industrial value chain. The paper contributes to a better understanding of path disturbance and offers an instrument to assess deviation in path trajectories and pinpoint its sources.

2025-08Journal article

Open access

Decarbonization Transition Pathways and Regional Trends: Insights from One Million Studies

Publication . Bento, Nuno; Alves, Tiago; Ribeiro, Ricardo; Fontes, Margarida

ABSTRACT: As global temperatures near critical thresholds and emissions continue to rise, the urgency for strategic, accelerated decarbonization grows. Despite a vast climate mitigation literature, a systematic understanding of actionable pathways remains limited. Here, we apply artificial intelligence to analyze over one million scientific papers (2011–2021), generating a data-driven typology of six archetypal decarbonization pathways: Technology Breakthrough, Electrification of Uses, Integrated Policy, Decarbonization of Electricity, Demand Reduction & Co-benefits, and Land Use & Circularity. Regional patterns show Electrification of Uses prevailing in Europe (EU27), while Technology Breakthrough dominates in China, the US, and Japan. Increasing political and societal resistance to mitigation makes the strategic selection and combination of pathways even more critical. Our analysis highlights key synergies between pathways, the scientific competencies required to support them, and persistent gaps—particularly in Land Use and Circularity. We also compare current climate policy directions with the typology, revealing alignment gaps that may weaken policy effectiveness. This framework enables policymakers to better match strategies with regional capacities and research strengths, offering a more coherent approach to decarbonization. Strengthening the integration of science, technology, and policy is essential to overcome fragmentation and deliver the emissions reductions needed to meet the net-zero climate targets.

2025-06Conference paper

Open access