SISMOD / LISMOT - Finite Seismic Source Modeling by Joint Inversion of Seismic and Geodesic Data and Strong ground motion in the Lower Tagus Valey

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Reappraisal of active tectonics of the Porto Alto buried fault zone (Portugal) considering new geophysical shallow studies

Publication . Carvalho, João; Cabral, João; Ghose, Ranajit; Borges, José Fernando; Dias, Ruben; Dias, Ruben

ABSTRACT: The Lower Tagus Valley area (LTV), where Lisbon is located, has been affected by several destructive, M 6+ earthquakes whose sources remain to be determined. The identification of expectable surface or near surface ruptures in the area is a challenging task that requires a multidisciplinary analysis that includes geophysical techniques, as the source faults are mainly buried despite likely to deform Upper Pleistocene to Holocene alluvial cover of the Tagus River. This paper focuses on the characterization of the Porto Alto fault zone for seismic hazard mitigation purposes. The Porto Alto fault zone was recognized in oil-industry P-wave 1980’s seismic reflection data as an important, Miocene reactivated, deep structure in the LTV. Highresolution P-wave seismic reflection data were later acquired in the early 2000’s to investigate related Holocene fault activity, leading to the identification of a shallow fault zone near the surface. However, the vertical resolution of the acquired P-wave seismic reflection data was considered insufficient to corroborate any presumably small vertical offset related to fault rupture in the ca. 50 m thick alluvium cover. Trenching for the recognition and characterization of surface faulting was previously tested in the study region but it proved to be a challenging and poorly efficient methodology due to the very shallow water table (at ~1 m) and low cohesion of the sediments. Due to these constraints, we revisited the former fault study site to acquire higher resolution S-wave seismic and ground penetrating radar (GPR) data. The new seismic profiles show interruption of the reflectors in the stacked sections. Diffracted energy, changes in amplitude/shape of the reflection hyperbolae in the shot gathers and spatially coincident low velocity anomalies, also indicate the presence of several shallow fault strands deeper than 10 m. The GPR profile, overlapping and extending the seismic profiles in 30 m reaches a maximum investigation depth of about 15 m and shows the presence of deformation at three locations, one of which matches with one of the fault strands detected in the high resolution S-wave seismic data. In this profile, sediment disruption was detected extending upwards to a depth as shallow as ca. 3.5 m, corresponding to alluvium with a poorly constrained age of ca. 2,300 yrs. Slip rate, maximum earthquake magnitude and recurrence, and other parameters are also estimated for the Porto Alto fault zone. These recently acquired seismic and GPR datasets indicate that there were at most three to five maximum earthquakes generated by the fault in the last 13,100 years, with an average recurrence of approximately 4,400 to 2,600 years respectively. However, the data show a grouping of these earthquakes in time, the first two in the period 13,100-12,300 years, separated by about 800 years, and the third or the last grouped three having occurred in the past 2,300 years with a similar average recurrence time of ca. 800 years. However, the regional historical and instrumental seismicity does not show an obvious link of any known major earthquake with the Porto Alto fault zone.

2025-05Journal article

Open access