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How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal

2022-01Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorFortes, Patricia
dc.contributor.authorSimoes, Sofia
dc.contributor.authorAmorim, Filipa
dc.contributor.authorSiggini, Gildas
dc.contributor.authorSessa, Valentina
dc.contributor.authorSaint-Drenan, Yves-Marie
dc.contributor.authorCarvalho, Silvia
dc.contributor.authorMujtaba, Babar
dc.contributor.authorDiogo, Paulo
dc.contributor.authorAssoumou, Edi
dc.date.accessioned2022-01-28T17:52:25Z
dc.date.available2022-01-28T17:52:25Z
dc.date.issued2022-01
dc.description.abstractABSTRACT: Climate change will impact renewable resources and electricity demand, usually not jointly considered when designing future decarbonized power systems. This paper assesses how sensitive the Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector is to climate change by 2050 and what are the implications for the formally approved Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. The future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydropower and electricity demand response to temperature are estimated for 22 climate projections along the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5. The eTIMES_PT optimization model is used to assess its combined impact on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sector by 2050. Results show that climate change lowers hydropower generation by 20% (in median terms). Improving spatial and temporal resolution and including future climate patterns, results also in lower cost-effectiveness of solar photovoltaic vis-a-vis the Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. While future climate does not impact onshore wind production, offshore wind power generation is positively affected, being a climate-resilient carbon-neutral option for Portugal. Annual electricity unitary costs at final users (excluding taxes and levies) only increase up to 4% with climate change, but seasonal costs have higher variability. This analysis highlights that climate change affects the cost-optimal annual carbon-neutral power sector and needs to be included in energy planning.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationFortes, P... [et.al.] - How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugal. In: Energy, 2022, Vol. 239, article nº 122106pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.energy.2021.122106pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn1873-6785
dc.identifier.issn0360-5442
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/3732
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relationUID/04085/2020pt_PT
dc.relationEuropean Research Area for Climate Services
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2021.122106pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectRenewable energy sourcespt_PT
dc.subjectPower systemspt_PT
dc.subjectClimate variabilitypt_PT
dc.subjectCarbon neutralitypt_PT
dc.titleHow sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for Portugalpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleEuropean Research Area for Climate Services
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/H2020/690462/EU
oaire.citation.titleEnergypt_PT
oaire.citation.volume239pt_PT
oaire.fundingStreamH2020
person.familyNameFortes
person.familyNameSimoes
person.familyNameda Costa Redondo Cancela de Amorim
person.familyNameSessa
person.familyNameSaint-Drenan
person.familyNameAssoumou
person.givenNamePatricia
person.givenNameSofia
person.givenNameAna Filipa
person.givenNameValentina
person.givenNameYves-Marie
person.givenNameEdi
person.identifier.ciencia-idF41C-16EA-85CC
person.identifier.ciencia-idB013-F0D5-FF8E
person.identifier.ciencia-id7E18-9DB1-CFE4
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-4743-1874
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4304-1411
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-9815-8647
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0083-2515
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-1471-1092
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-2958-5562
person.identifier.ridI-3367-2015
person.identifier.scopus-author-id24472270000
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100008530
project.funder.nameEuropean Commission
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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