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Historical variation of IEA energy and CO2 emission projections: implications for future energy modeling

2021-07Journal article Open access
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dc.contributor.authorFazendeiro, Luis A. M.
dc.contributor.authorSimoes, Sofia
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-17T15:51:58Z
dc.date.available2021-12-17T15:51:58Z
dc.date.issued2021-07
dc.description.abstractABSTRACT: The World Energy Outlook reports produced by the International Energy Agency have long been considered the "gold standard" in terms of energy modeling and projecting future trends. It is thus extremely important to assess how well its projections are aligned with sustainable development goals as well as closely tracking observed, historical values. In this work we analyzed thirteen sets of World Energy Outlook projections from the last 25 years. Different scenarios were considered for the following regions and countries: world, OECD, OECD Europe, OECD North America, China, India, Russia, and Africa. The maximum variation between the projections for 2030 CO2 emissions from the energy sector, made between 2006 and 2018 for OECD, Europe and North America were found to be comparable with the gap between the Paris Agreement goals and the voluntary (unconditional) nationally determined contributions to remain below a 2 degrees C global temperature increase. For the same period, projections for the percentage of renewable electricity exhibited maximum variations between 51% and 96%, signaling a huge underestimation. We discuss the significance of overestimating energy demand and underestimating the rate of renewable energy implementation in the context of 2030 climate and energy policy targets, as well as desirable methodological changes to energy modeling under aggressive climate mitigation policies.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationFazendeiro, Luís M... [et.al.] - Historical variation of IEA energy and CO2 emission projections: implications for future energy modeling. In: Sustainability, 2021, Vol. 13(13), article nº 7432pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.3390/su13137432pt_PT
dc.identifier.eissn2071-1050
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/3637
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherMDPIpt_PT
dc.relationAccelerating he transition: Energy systems modelling under low-carbon policies
dc.relationCenter for Environmental and Sustainability Research
dc.relation.publisherversionhttps://doi.org/10.3390/su13137432pt_PT
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectEnergypt_PT
dc.subjectEnergy systemspt_PT
dc.subjectModellingpt_PT
dc.subjectClimate change mitigationpt_PT
dc.subjectEnergy systems integrationpt_PT
dc.subjectScenariospt_PT
dc.subjectOptimizationpt_PT
dc.titleHistorical variation of IEA energy and CO2 emission projections: implications for future energy modelingpt_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleAccelerating he transition: Energy systems modelling under low-carbon policies
oaire.awardTitleCenter for Environmental and Sustainability Research
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT//PD%2FBD%2F128171%2F2016/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04085%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.issue13pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleSustainabilitypt_PT
oaire.citation.volume13pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameFazendeiro
person.familyNameSimoes
person.givenNameLuis
person.givenNameSofia
person.identifierluisfa
person.identifier.ciencia-id3118-2E4C-FB4A
person.identifier.ciencia-idB013-F0D5-FF8E
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-3561-0226
person.identifier.orcid0000-0003-4304-1411
person.identifier.ridK-4914-2015
person.identifier.ridI-3367-2015
person.identifier.scopus-author-id8531975800
person.identifier.scopus-author-id24472270000
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsopenAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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