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- Natural Hydrogen Prospectivity in Portugal: A first approachPublication . Portillo, Juan C. C.; Ferreira, Pedro Tavares; Sampaio, José; Batista, Maria Joao; Represas, Patricia; Ramalho, Elsa; Machado, Susana; Carvalho, JoãoABSTRACT: This works presents the first maps of the prospectivity of natural hydrogen in continental Portugal and the methodological approach undertaken. The methodology used in this study follows the Chance of Sufficiency (COS) approach, which is also sometimes referred as the Chance of Success in exploration geoscience. It is a probabilistic estimate of whether a geological prospect contains a resource (e.g., hydrocarbons, hydrogen, etc.) in sufficient quantity and quality to be considered a "success" or explorable. It is typically expressed as a percentage and reflects the likelihood that all critical geological factors align to yield a viable accumulation. COS is grounded in Bayesian probability and statistical modelling. It is often calculated by multiplying the probabilities of independent geological favourable factors, such as sources (presence of a generating system), reservoirs (porosity and permeability), seals (cap rock to trap fluids), trap (structural or stratigraphic configuration), timing and migration (alignment of generation and trap formation). In this study only the first three were considered (i.e. sources, reservoirs, and seals). Consequently, this work should be seem as a first approach for the prospectivity of hydrogen mapping in Portugal.