ISE - Comunicações em actas de encontros científicos internacionais
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Percorrer ISE - Comunicações em actas de encontros científicos internacionais por Objetivos de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (ODS) "11:Cidades e Comunidades Sustentáveis"
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- Assessing the Market Value of Power Forecasting of Hybrid Power Plants in the Iberian Electricity MarketPublication . Couto, António; Graça, Pedro; Sousa, Vivian; Estanqueiro, AnaABSTRACT: This study evaluates the technical and economic performance of wind power plants hybridised with solar photovoltaic (PV) under two 2030 Iberian electricity market scenarios dominated by renewable energy, developed within the Man0EUvRE project. A power forecasting model was optimised to maximise their market value, considering participation in both day-ahead and balancing markets. Compared to wind-only power plants, hybridisation improves forecast accuracy due to the complementary generation profiles of wind and solar PV. As a result, revenue losses due to imbalance penalties decrease by 1528%, enabling the prices captured to increase by up to 6%. The hybrid configurations also achieved the highest market remuneration. However, as the share of low marginal cost technologies increases in the electricity markets, captured prices are expected to decline. These results demonstrate the benefits of hybridising the existing wind power plants, which can provide a short-term and efficient solution to support the ambitious European decarbonisation targets while enhancing both operational performance and their market value.
- Decarbonization Transition Pathways and Regional Trends: Insights from One Million StudiesPublication . Bento, Nuno; Alves, Tiago; Ribeiro, Ricardo; Fontes, MargaridaABSTRACT: As global temperatures near critical thresholds and emissions continue to rise, the urgency for strategic, accelerated decarbonization grows. Despite a vast climate mitigation literature, a systematic understanding of actionable pathways remains limited. Here, we apply artificial intelligence to analyze over one million scientific papers (2011–2021), generating a data-driven typology of six archetypal decarbonization pathways: Technology Breakthrough, Electrification of Uses, Integrated Policy, Decarbonization of Electricity, Demand Reduction & Co-benefits, and Land Use & Circularity. Regional patterns show Electrification of Uses prevailing in Europe (EU27), while Technology Breakthrough dominates in China, the US, and Japan. Increasing political and societal resistance to mitigation makes the strategic selection and combination of pathways even more critical. Our analysis highlights key synergies between pathways, the scientific competencies required to support them, and persistent gaps—particularly in Land Use and Circularity. We also compare current climate policy directions with the typology, revealing alignment gaps that may weaken policy effectiveness. This framework enables policymakers to better match strategies with regional capacities and research strengths, offering a more coherent approach to decarbonization. Strengthening the integration of science, technology, and policy is essential to overcome fragmentation and deliver the emissions reductions needed to meet the net-zero climate targets.
- Driving Transformative Change: Assessing the Direction and Design of Decarbonization Policies in the EU, US, China, and JapanPublication . Fontes, Margarida; Sousa, Cristina; Bento, NunoABSTRACT: The transition to low‐carbon economies demands policies that drive both decarbonization and deep socioeconomic transformation. This paper assesses the “transformative potential” of 3,400 decarbonization policies from Europe, the US, China, and Japan. We define transformative potential considering both policy direction – alignment with sustainability goals, and policy design ‐ presence of mechanisms that can induce transformation, such as experimentation, actor diversity, multiscale coordination, and reflexivity. The research shows that when we consider a broad universe of decarbonization policies, transformative potential is still limited: only 20% of policies align with at least one transition pathway and include at least one transformative mechanism; and just 2% include three or more mechanisms. By identifying distinguishing features of these higher transformative potential policies, the paper contributes to understanding how technological, sectoral and contextual factors shape the capacity of policies to enable transformative change.
- Estimativa do Potencial Técnico da Energia Solar Térmica no Setor dos Edifícios e na Indústria em PortugalPublication . Cardoso, João; Facão, Jorge
- Iberian Electricity Market Performance under European Energy Transition Scenarios for 2050Publication . Sousa, Vivian; Couto, António; Graça, Pedro; Estanqueiro, Ana; Löffler, Konstantin; Moskalenko, NikitaABSTRACT: The Man0EUvRE project analyses the required energy transition in Europe, extending beyond typical scenarios focused only on renewable integration pace by incorporating key uncertainties such as geopolitical fragmentation, limited cooperation, and technological innovation. This study evaluates the performance of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL) between 2030 and 2050 under four distinct scenarios. Long-term capacity expansion is modelled with GENeSYS-MOD, while hourly day-ahead market clearing prices are simulated using PyMIBEL-DAM, capturing both strategic investment decisions and operational dynamics. The results highlight strong growth of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) through 2050, particularly solar photovoltaic, and the resulting price cannibalisation that challenges the conomic viability of solar generation in a market environment. Wind generation, in contrast, maintains more stable capture prices showing differences in the market value across vRES technologies. Therefore, a carefully designed transition pathway, by integrating a balanced generation mix, robust flexibility solutions, and reinforced cross-border interconnections between Portugal and Spain, is essential. Such integration will provide the necessary market signals for sustainable decarbonisation of the Iberian power system while ensuring overall system efficiency.
- Increase the value of wind power plants through the hybridization with solar photovoltaicPublication . Couto, António; Estanqueiro, AnaABSTRACT: The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources, such as wind and solar PV, requires these technologies to actively support power system operation through participation in day-ahead and balancing markets, including the provision of ancillary services. In this context, hybrid power plants, where wind and solar PV share a common point of common coupling and are operated as a single unit, can provide technical and economic advantages compared to standalone plants. This work focuses on the “firm capacity” that can be offered in the Portuguese balancing markets using probabilistic power forecasts, considering the hybridisation of existing wind power plants with solar PV units. Results are compared with the standalone wind power plant and feature-based indicators are also explored to assess whether dynamic selection of forecast quantiles can increase the available capacity for balancing market. Two case studies in Portugal with different levels of wind and solar complementarity are considered. Results show that hybrid power plants significantly increase the amount of capacity available for market participation from 20.5% to 66.2% relative to standalone wind power plants. Thus, hybridisation enhances the ability of existing grid assets to provide ancillary services through participation in balancing markets.
- A Infraestrutura INIESC no Contexto da EU-SOLARIS: Actividades e Perspectivas FuturasPublication . Horta, Pedro; Canavarro, Diogo; Cardoso, João; Azevedo, Pedro; Martinez, Diego