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- A Methodology for Dynamic Procurement of Secondary Reserve Capacity in Power Systems with Significant vRES PenetrationsPublication . Algarvio, Hugo; Couto, António; Estanqueiro, AnaABSTRACT: The European pathway to carbon neutrality indicates strong investments in variable renewable energy sources. Demand-side and variable renewable players rely on forecasts to participate in day-ahead markets closing between 12 and 37 hours ahead of real-time operation. As such, the further from the real-time operation those forecasts are provided, the higher their errors and the uncertainty. Deviations from the market schedules are balanced using real-time reserves. Traditionally, transmission system operators (TSOs) use a symmetrical procurement of up and down reserves based on the expected demand. This work considers the computation of a dynamic up and down procurement of secondary capacities by considering the expected deviations, using the day-ahead programmed and expected dispatches of variable renewables, demand, other technologies, and the cross-border capacities. The study uses operational open data from the Spanish TSO from 2019 to 2022. The proposed methodology allows increasing the usage of the up and down secondary capacities by almost 13% and 8%, respectively, freeing up 11% of the allocated resources, on average.
- A Double Pricing and Penalties “Separated” Imbalance Settlement Mechanism to Incentive Self Balancing of Market PartiesPublication . Algarvio, Hugo; Couto, António; Estanqueiro, AnaABSTRACT: Increasing penetrations of variable renewable energy sources increase the usage and costs of reserves due to their stochastic nature. As Balance Responsible Parties all market participants pay the balancing costs of their imbalances according to the imbalance settlement mechanism of each market zone. The European balancing markets and the imbalance settlement mechanisms still have different rules across Europe, but normally, the prices of upward and downward regulation are higher and lower than spot prices, respectively, originating penalties. Against this background, this work presents an alternative “Separated” imbalance settlement mechanism that consists of unbalanced parties paying/receiving directly the costs/revenues of the balancing markets needed to balance them. In this mechanism, the net costs/revenues of Transmission System Operators with energy balancing mechanisms are zero. Furthermore, by separating the payment of penalties between unbalanced directions, this mechanism also incentive unbalanced parties to self-control their dispatch, mitigating part of their deviations. Two case studies have been presented to test the application of this mechanism in Portugal and Spain, comparing its outputs with those of the mechanisms in place in these countries during 2019. Outputs from the studies prove the benefit of using this mechanism to reduce penalties, mainly in the case of active market players that can partly control their dispatch.
- Reduction of the Market Splitting Occurrences: A Dynamic Line Rating Approach for the 2030 Iberian Day-ahead Market ScenariosPublication . Algarvio, Hugo; Couto, António; Estanqueiro, Ana; Carvalho, Rui; Santos, Gabriel; Faia, Ricardo; Faria, Pedro; Vale, ZitaABSTRACT: Typically, Transmission System Operators apply power flow models with Seasonal Line Rating prescriptions to compute the ampacity of power lines, in a process that enables to obtain the cross-border capacity for trading between different countries or market zones. These seasonal-dependent models rely on fixed conservative meteorological conditions throughout the year, underestimating the real-time transmission capacity of overhead lines. This can contribute to market splitting occurrences, i.e., a situation where the cleared power flow between different market zones of the coupled market is superior to the cross-border capacity, separating markets, which brings economic losses to market participants. Dynamic Line Rating analysis allows computing the overhead lines’ capacity considering the weather conditions that influence the power line's thermal dynamics. This work presents a study that applies the CIGRÉ 601 model in cross-border power lines between Portugal and Spain to quantify the reduction in market splitting occurrences in the day-ahead Iberian market considering based on the installed capacities from the 2030 national energy and climate plans. Comparing with the seasonal approach, dynamic line rating enabled to reduce the number of market splitting occurrences from 1512 to 514, reducing the electricity costs by more than 1% and the price difference from 19 to 12 €/MWh.
- Descarbonizar micro/mini-redes através da complementaridade da produção solar fotovoltaica e eólicaPublication . Couto, António; Cardoso, João P.; Simões, Teresa; Estanqueiro, Ana; Stevanato, N.; Mereu, R.RESUMO: Este trabalho apresenta uma metodologia para determinar a capacidade instalada ótima de fontes de energia renováveis variáveis no tempo, numa mini-rede selecionada, e avaliar o potencial destas tecnologias para satisfazer o consumo de eletricidade, permitindo reduzir a dependência de geradores alimentados por combustíveis fósseis. A capacidade ótima é identificada com base na exploração estratégica da sinergia eólica e solar fotovoltaica (FV) para atender à procura de eletricidade, neste caso, para substituir a produção com geradores a diesel. Para este efeito, neste trabalho, explora-se o uso de diferentes ângulos de azimute e inclinação dos sistemas solares fotovoltaicos fixos (convencionais e bifaciais), bem como sistemas com seguimento para criar um portfólio de geração ideal. Os resultados preliminares obtidos destacam que é necessário diversificar a orientação dos painéis solares e explorar a energia eólica para evitar vários períodos com excesso de produção e, consequentemente, corte de geração. Apesar de ser necessário continuar a desenvolver este trabalho, os resultados mostram que o uso dos geradores a diesel pode ser significativamente reduzido, especialmente durante o período diurno.
- How innovations lead to structural change: Elements for a theory of system transformationPublication . Bento, Nuno; Fontes, Margarida; Costa, EvaldoABSTRACT: Accelerating decarbonization to limit global warming to 1.5ºC requires a deep change in the provision and consumption of essential services such as mobility, thermal comfort or substance. It involves the dissemination of several social, technological and institutional innovations across multiple sectors. This contrasts with the traditional perspective in the literature that focuses on specific innovations in a single sector (e.g., solar PV in electricity generation). This research examines the conditions and processes that enable system transformation, here defined as a structural change which have wide social and economic impacts on several sectors (energy, transport, building, industry, food). Building on theories and concepts from economics, innovation and technological change, and sustainability transitions, four main conditions for system transformation emerge: technology; business model; social acceptance; institutions. These conditions underpin processes of system transformation that can be led by demand, supply or coordination. The analysis of two empirical examples (digital convergence and sharing economy) illustrates the explanatory power of this framework and offers insights for improving both the theory and the strategies for deep decarbonization.
- Transformative mechanisms in decarbonization policies: a structured approachPublication . Sousa, Cristina; Fontes, Margarida; Bento, NunoABSTRACT: The transition to a low-carbon society should accelerate to avoid an increase in the temperatures above 1.5º to 2ºC, and this is unlikely to occur without policy intervention (IPCC, 2022). Given the complexity of the problem, recent debates have increasingly pointed to the need of adopting a new, broader view on policy intervention (Weber and Rohracher, 2012; Hekkert et al., 2020). This entails a move beyond a single focus on economic competitiveness and growth and towards a focus on societal problems or “grand challenges”, leading to the emergence of the concept of transformative innovation policy (Schot and Steinmueller 2018; Dierks et al., 2019). This new rationale implies the consideration of a much broader range of policy objectives, targets and instruments, as well as the notion that a mix of policies needs to be deployed to achieve the desired goals (Rogge and Reichardt, 2016).
- Improving wind power market value with various aspects of diversificationPublication . Vrana, Til Kristian; Svendsen, Harald G.; Korpås, Magnus; Couto, António; Estanqueiro, Ana; Flynn, Damian; Holttinen, Hannele; Härtel, Philipp; Koivisto, Matti; Lantz, Eric; Frew, BethanyABSTRACT: The wind generation share in many European bidding zones is now large enough to affect the market value of wind power, and wind energy is getting less-than-average market price in day-ahead markets. As alternatives to investing in dedicated energy storage, there are two main ways to mitigate the decreasing market value trend. The first is employing different diversification measures (geographical spread, alternative wind turbine technologies, integration with solar). The second is implementing demand flexibility measures. Examples of these measures from some European and USA studies are given in this article, which stems from the international collaboration under IEA Wind TCP Tasks 25 and 53.
- Diversification strategies and the emergence of a new industrial value-chain: challenges and opportunities for companiesPublication . Sousa, Cristina; Fontes, Margarida; Conceição, OscarinaABSTRACT: Marine renewable energy technologies (MRET) can contribute to the decarbonization of energy, as well as to the revitalisation of other sectors, but are still an emerging and uncertain area. The development of these technologies entails the construction of a new industrial value chain, requiring the involvement of established firms from a variety of industries. Thus, it is important to understand how established firms can be mobilised to support MRET development, by pursuing diversification strategies. This paper addresses this question by looking at the case of Portuguese firms that expressed willingness to engage with MRET and investigating how they perceive the opportunities for diversification into the new business area, the changes they may need to introduce in their resources and capabilities to exploit those opportunities, and the obstacles they expect to face.
- Transformative business models for decarbonization: the case of Web Summit award-winning start-upsPublication . Costa, Evaldo; Fontes, Margarida; Bento, Nuno; Academic Conferences International LimitedABSTRACT: The social demand for decarbonization has placed increasing pressure on businesses to climate mitigation. The development of new business models capable of transforming conventional systems of production and consumption and replacing them with more sustainable alternatives is one critical step towards this goal. This study combines several streams of literature including sustainability transitions and business model narratives to investigate the key-elements of the business models that have the potential to transform the supply of goods and services in a way that enables the transition to a low-carbon society. We investigate the organizational arrangements in the business activities of start-ups and relate to the extent to which they avoid, shift, or improve the production and consumption of goods and services in a way that significantly reduces carbon emissions. To do this, we analyzed start-ups that received innovation awards and were on the list of finalist’s candidates of the Web of Summit between 2014-2020. The results suggest that start-ups may be in the process of transforming their business models (BM), since a growing trend of transformative projects that adopt integrated business models was identified, e.g., business-to-business-to-commerce (B2B2C), instead of the familiar business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) models. The findings also highlighted the role of Industry 4.0, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), together with other sustainable elements, as crucial to shortening the gap between design and consumption, leveraging innovative solutions, and transforming the model of business, from start-up. This research emphasizes the importance of transformative business models in the context of decarbonization and contributes to filling a gap in the literature on the elements that drive this transformation. The research is also relevant for policymakers aiming to promote a low-carbon economy by highlighting the levers that can be used to promote transformative pathways through business models.
- Assessing the industrial effects of the deployment of renewable energy technologies: when product identity mattersPublication . Barbosa, Juliana; Fontes, Margarida; Bento, NunoABSTRACT: Investment in renewable energy technologies (RET) produces impacts on economic activity and job creation that are fundamental to increase the social acceptability of those technologies. Previous research that attempted to measure the impacts of RET has mainly focused on its effects in energy production and climate mitigation, but surprisingly little is known about the potential of RET to transform the industrial structure of an economy. This paper proposes a methodology to understand and measure the industrial transformative impact of RET. The paper draws on contributions from the sustainability transitions literature and from the economic literature that analyses the socioeconomic impacts of RET, and combine them with the economic complexity literature in order to address two main gaps: the lack of measurement of industrial transformative effects in the first; and the assumption of product homogeneity in the second that precludes an assessment of more structural impacts. We develop a conceptual approach to the way technology deployment can lead to changes in the industrial structure, centered on the notion of product heterogeneity intrinsic to the economic complexity literature. We advance three main dimensions along which to measure the changes in the industrial structure driven by modifications in the basket of products being produced due to the development of the technology value chain: sophistication, connectivity, and competitiveness. We also propose a more precise delineation of the industrial value chain of the technology, by considering the actual weights of each sector to the technology and the technology to each sector. This approach is applied to the case of wind energy in Portugal (a successful fast follower), compared with three other main wind energy producers (Spain, Denmark, Germany). The results show a strong relationship between the deployment of the technology and the sophistication and the competitiveness of the Æcloud of productsÆ composing the industrial value chain. The paper proposes a novel analytical framework and measurement tools that can support a timely assessment of the effects of sustainable energy technologies in the industrial structure, with relevance for policy.