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- Winds of change: the potential path disturbing effect induced by the offshore wind energy technologyPublication . Fontes, Margarida; Santos, Hélder; Torres, MarceloABSTRACT: Path development literature focus on path creation or on changes in mature paths but gives limited attention to early path evolution. The paper addresses this gap by investigating the disturbance, in the early trajectory of technology-driven regional industrial paths, that results from the emergence of new generations of technology. We propose that changes in actor composition and purposeful resource modification actions by path actors are important elements of disturbance and develop an approach to investigate their effects. The ongoing changes in the wind energy regional industrial path, associated with the development and diffusion of offshore wind energy technology, are empirically investigated. The research finds evidence of path disturbing effects at the level of actors and resources. As onshore wind actors start engaging in offshore activities and new actors enter the wind business, the composition and industrial structure of the wind energy regional path and its spatial distribution start to change. There are equally important effects upon the process of resource formation, at the level of knowledge, market, financial and legitimacy system resources and across the various phases of the industrial value chain. The paper contributes to a better understanding of path disturbance and offers an instrument to assess deviation in path trajectories and pinpoint its sources.
- Driving Transformative Change: Assessing the Direction and Design of Decarbonization Policies in the EU, US, China, and JapanPublication . Fontes, Margarida; Sousa, Cristina; Bento, NunoABSTRACT: The transition to low‐carbon economies demands policies that drive both decarbonization and deep socioeconomic transformation. This paper assesses the “transformative potential” of 3,400 decarbonization policies from Europe, the US, China, and Japan. We define transformative potential considering both policy direction – alignment with sustainability goals, and policy design ‐ presence of mechanisms that can induce transformation, such as experimentation, actor diversity, multiscale coordination, and reflexivity. The research shows that when we consider a broad universe of decarbonization policies, transformative potential is still limited: only 20% of policies align with at least one transition pathway and include at least one transformative mechanism; and just 2% include three or more mechanisms. By identifying distinguishing features of these higher transformative potential policies, the paper contributes to understanding how technological, sectoral and contextual factors shape the capacity of policies to enable transformative change.
- Systemic complementarities and transformative change: A tentative methodology to examine bidirectionality effects across connected systems [Resumo]Publication . Padua, Muriela; Fontes, MargaridaABSTRACT: Achieving energy-sustainable goals involves large-scale production and social changes necessary to fulfil societal functions (Geels, 2004; Markard, 2011). These long-term goals imply a transformative change requiring multiple transitions involving multiple socio-technical systems and their interplay (Raven and Verbong, 2007; Geels, 2007; Papachristos, 2013; Rosenbloom, 2020). To fully address system change, it is necessary to consider that changes in one system affect the other (Geels, 2007; Papachristos, 2013), i.e., the presence of bidirectionality in system interactions. However, bidirectionality has only recently started being tackled and remains under-conceptualized.
- Bridging Regional Divides in Decarbonization: Firm Strategies, Policy Tensions, and Structural Trade-offs in Portugal [Resumo]Publication . Vale, Mário; Alves, Tiago; Fontes, Margarida; Mamede, Ricardo; Bento, NunoABSTRACT: The transition to a low-carbon economy is shaped by structural tensions and trade-offs that impact firms, regions, and policymakers. A central challenge is balancing regional equity, industrial specialization, and technological innovation in decarbonization policies (Markard & Rosenbloom, 2022). This study critically examines these tensions by analysing firm-level decarbonization strategies within the Portugal 2020 (PT2020) program, revealing how economic structures shape sustainability transitions and the effectiveness of policy interventions.
- Decarbonization Transition Pathways and Regional Trends: Insights from One Million StudiesPublication . Bento, Nuno; Alves, Tiago; Ribeiro, Ricardo; Fontes, MargaridaABSTRACT: As global temperatures near critical thresholds and emissions continue to rise, the urgency for strategic, accelerated decarbonization grows. Despite a vast climate mitigation literature, a systematic understanding of actionable pathways remains limited. Here, we apply artificial intelligence to analyze over one million scientific papers (2011–2021), generating a data-driven typology of six archetypal decarbonization pathways: Technology Breakthrough, Electrification of Uses, Integrated Policy, Decarbonization of Electricity, Demand Reduction & Co-benefits, and Land Use & Circularity. Regional patterns show Electrification of Uses prevailing in Europe (EU27), while Technology Breakthrough dominates in China, the US, and Japan. Increasing political and societal resistance to mitigation makes the strategic selection and combination of pathways even more critical. Our analysis highlights key synergies between pathways, the scientific competencies required to support them, and persistent gaps—particularly in Land Use and Circularity. We also compare current climate policy directions with the typology, revealing alignment gaps that may weaken policy effectiveness. This framework enables policymakers to better match strategies with regional capacities and research strengths, offering a more coherent approach to decarbonization. Strengthening the integration of science, technology, and policy is essential to overcome fragmentation and deliver the emissions reductions needed to meet the net-zero climate targets.