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- Man0EUvRE: Energy System Modelling for Transition to a net-Zero 2050 for EU via REPowerEU: Deliverable 3.1 Executive Summaries of Case StudiesPublication . Esmaeili Aliabadi, Danial; Mantilla, Carlos; Lechón, Yolanda; Haaskjold, Kristina; Arvesen, Anders; Baldauf, Thomas; Eschmann, Jonas; Kochems, Johannes; Gutjahr, Sandra Franziska; Kirkil, Gokhan; Kaltsas, Ilias; Kannavou, Maria; Charousset-Brignol, Sandrine; Couto, António; Estanqueiro, Ana; Barani, Mostafa; Löffler, Konstantin; Nienhaus, Kristina; Belsnes, Michael Martin; Mathisen, SiriABSTRACT: This document is related to Deliverable 3.1 of the Man0EUvRE project, in which we report modelling activities of nine case studies from various countries. Each case study addresses a question from a regional perspective while considering the general assumptions of the consortium through established scenarios. We follow a consistent reporting format across all case studies, allowing readers who are interested in a specific region or question to skip other cases without losing essential context. Based on our preliminary findings, European energy systems across the case studies collectively show that Europe can become both self-reliant and an exporter of low-carbon energy carriers if policies and investments unlock regional strengths and the right flexibility instruments are put in place. Southern states with abundant solar energy (e.g., Portugal, Spain, Greece, Turkey) can scale renewables and electrolysis. Scandinavia’s hydropower offers system-scale flexibility that stabilises high variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration, and cross-model comparisons demonstrate that combining broad, cross-sectoral modelling with detailed power-system studies reveals complementary roles for exports, seasonal storage and short-term balancing. Studies of Germany and Hungary underline the critical role of dispatchable, negative-emission options—such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)—to avoid reliance on fossil backstops, while agent-based macroeconomic results show that changing global energy factor prices will reshape (not necessarily hollow out) industrial activity.
- Iberian Electricity Market Performance under European Energy Transition Scenarios for 2050Publication . Sousa, Vivian; Couto, António; Graça, Pedro; Estanqueiro, Ana; Löffler, Konstantin; Moskalenko, NikitaABSTRACT: The Man0EUvRE project analyses the required energy transition in Europe, extending beyond typical scenarios focused only on renewable integration pace by incorporating key uncertainties such as geopolitical fragmentation, limited cooperation, and technological innovation. This study evaluates the performance of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL) between 2030 and 2050 under four distinct scenarios. Long-term capacity expansion is modelled with GENeSYS-MOD, while hourly day-ahead market clearing prices are simulated using PyMIBEL-DAM, capturing both strategic investment decisions and operational dynamics. The results highlight strong growth of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) through 2050, particularly solar photovoltaic, and the resulting price cannibalisation that challenges the conomic viability of solar generation in a market environment. Wind generation, in contrast, maintains more stable capture prices showing differences in the market value across vRES technologies. Therefore, a carefully designed transition pathway, by integrating a balanced generation mix, robust flexibility solutions, and reinforced cross-border interconnections between Portugal and Spain, is essential. Such integration will provide the necessary market signals for sustainable decarbonisation of the Iberian power system while ensuring overall system efficiency.