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- Simulated hydropower production under climate change scenarios at Torrão reservoir, in northern PortugalPublication . Diogo, Paulo; Mujtaba, Babar; Beça, Pedro; Simoes, Sofia; Fortes, Patricia; Amorim, FilipaABSTRACT: Climate conditions have a significant impact on energy demand and production. The project CLIM2POWER, completed in 2021, aimed to develop a climate service at European scale for the planning of the power infrastructures operations using seasonal forecasts and long-term climate projections. This work presents part of the project, and focus on assessing the climate change impacts on hydropower production of Torrão Dam. Torrão reservoir is located on the Tâmega river, a tributary of the Douro river in northern Portugal. The long-term (2016-2100) climate data used is obtained from the EURO-CORDEX simulations, on a daily time scale. Two different combinations of regional and global climate models for scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 (four combinations) were used: ICHEC-EC-EARTH-CLMcom-CCLM4 (CCLM4) and ICHEC-EC-EARTH-DMI-HIRHAM5 (HIRMAM5). Long-term precipitation data was bias-corrected using the multiplicative shift method, and for rainfall-runoff simulation, HEC-HMS model was used. The results showed that 30-years total annual precipitation for future periods (i.e, 2016-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) was 3.4%-28.1% lower than the historical one. 30-years annual total discharges of all future periods decreased for both models and RCPs (1.2%-30.2% less than the historical ones). Regarding future 30-year annual average capacity factors, there was reduction (1.8%-24.8%) with respect to historical one, except in two future periods for CCLM4 model of RCP 4.5 scenario i.e., 1.2% increased in the period 2016-2040 and 1.5% increased in the period 1971-2100. This suggest that hydropower production is not only dependent on future precipitation trends but also on the hydropower production procedures.
- Usos de água concorrentes para a agricultura e geração de eletricidade: quantificação dos impactos das alterações climáticas no setor eletroprodutor Português [Comunicação oral]Publication . Simoes, Sofia; Brás, Teresa; Amorim, Filipa; Fortes, PatriciaRESUMO: Neste webinar apresentamos os resultados de um estudo do LNEG e do CENSE – NOVA para 2050 focando o impacto combinado das alterações climáticas segundo o Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 e a variação expectável na utilização de água para agricultura tanto em Portugal como em Espanha. A análise estuda as bacias do Douro e Tejo e o impacto que se poderá sentir no sistema eletroprodutor nacional como um todo.
- Competing water uses between agriculture and energy: Quantifying the future impacts of climate change for the Portuguese power sectorPublication . Fortes, Patricia; Simoes, Sofia; Brás, Teresa; Amorim, FilipaABSTRACT: This paper analyses to which extent the competition for water resources between water demand for agriculture and hydropower may affect the future Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector under RCP8.5 climate scenario. Climate change effects on the availability of wind, solar PV and electricity demand are also modelled by the energy system eTIMES_PT model. Results show that, by 2050, Portuguese irrigation water demand is projected to increase between 3.5%-9.7% and 19% in Douro watershed, responsible for more than 50% of the national hydropower production. Consequently, annual average hydropower capacity factor reduces around 9-10%. Comparing with historical average hydrological years, climate change can lead to a reduction of hydropower production between -9% to -30%, which may be aggravated to -21% to -39%, with water competition. This reduction is compensated with a rise of Offshore Wind less affected by climate change.
- How climate trends affect the portfolio of the future Portuguese power sector [Comunicação oral]Publication . Fortes, Patricia; Amorim, Filipa; Simoes, Sofia
- Advancing participatory energy systems modellingPublication . McGookin, Connor; Süsser, Diana; Xexakis, Georgios; Trutnevyte, Evelina; McDowall, Will; Nikas, Alexandros; Koasidis, Konstantinos; Few, Sheridan; Andersen, Per Dannemand; Demski, Christina; Fortes, Patricia; Simoes, Sofia; Bishop, Christopher; Rogan, Fionn; Ó Gallachóir, BrianABSTRACT: Energy system models are important tools to guide our understanding of current and future carbon dioxide emissions as well as to inform strategies for emissions reduction. These models offer a vital evidence base that increasingly underpins energy and climate policies in many countries. In light of this important role in policy formation, there is growing interest in, and demands for, energy modellers to integrate more diverse perspectives on possible and preferred futures into the modelling process. The main purpose of this is to ensure that the resultant policy decisions are both fairer and better reflect people's concerns and preferences. However, while there has been a focus in the literature on efforts to bring societal dimensions into modelling tools, there remains a limited number of examples of well-structured participatory energy systems modelling processes and no available how-to guidance. This paper addresses this gap by providing good practice guidance for integrating stakeholder and public involvement in energy systems modelling based on the reflections of a diverse range of experts from this emergent field. The framework outlined in this paper offers multiple entry points for modellers to incorporate participatory elements either throughout the process or in individual stages. Recognising the messiness of both fields (energy systems modelling and participatory research), the good practice principles are not comprehensive or set in stone, but rather pose important questions to steer this process. Finally, the reflections on key issues provide a summary of the crucial challenges and important areas for future research in this critical field.
- How can green hydrogen from North Africa support EU decarbonization? Scenario analyses on competitive pathways for tradePublication . Pinto, Maria Cristina; Simoes, Sofia; Fortes, PatriciaABSTRACT: The carbon-neutrality target set by the European Union for 2050 drives the increasing relevance of green hydrogen as key player in the energy transition. This work uses the JRC-EU-TIMES energy system model to assess opportunities and challenges for green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe, analysing to what extent it can support its decarbonization. An important novelty is addressing uncertainty regarding hydrogen economy development. Alternative scenarios are built considering volumes available for import, production costs and transport options, affecting hydrogen cost-effectiveness. Both pipelines and ships are modelled assuming favourable market conditions and pessimistic ones. From 2040 on, all available North African hydrogen is imported regardless of its costs. In Europe this imported hydrogen is mainly converted into synfuels and heat. The study aims to support policymakers to implement effective strategies, focusing on the crucial role of green hydrogen in the decarbonization process, if new competitive cooperations are developed.
- The role of lithium reserves in Portugal to fulfil the e-mobility needs from the National Roadmap for Carbon Neutrality 2050 [Comunicação oral]Publication . Amorim, Filipa; Simoes, Sofia; Fortes, Patricia; Nogueira, Carlos
- How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for PortugalPublication . Fortes, Patricia; Simoes, Sofia; Amorim, Filipa; Siggini, Gildas; Sessa, Valentina; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Carvalho, Silvia; Mujtaba, Babar; Diogo, Paulo; Assoumou, EdiABSTRACT: Climate change will impact renewable resources and electricity demand, usually not jointly considered when designing future decarbonized power systems. This paper assesses how sensitive the Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector is to climate change by 2050 and what are the implications for the formally approved Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. The future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydropower and electricity demand response to temperature are estimated for 22 climate projections along the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5. The eTIMES_PT optimization model is used to assess its combined impact on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sector by 2050. Results show that climate change lowers hydropower generation by 20% (in median terms). Improving spatial and temporal resolution and including future climate patterns, results also in lower cost-effectiveness of solar photovoltaic vis-a-vis the Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. While future climate does not impact onshore wind production, offshore wind power generation is positively affected, being a climate-resilient carbon-neutral option for Portugal. Annual electricity unitary costs at final users (excluding taxes and levies) only increase up to 4% with climate change, but seasonal costs have higher variability. This analysis highlights that climate change affects the cost-optimal annual carbon-neutral power sector and needs to be included in energy planning.
- Competing water uses between agriculture and energy: Quantifying future climate change impacts for the Portuguese power sectorPublication . Fortes, Patricia; Simoes, Sofia; Brás, Teresa; Amorim, FilipaABSTRACT: Climate change may increase water needs for irrigation in southern Europe competing with other water uses, such as hydropower, which may likely be impacted by lower precipitation. Climate change will also potentially affect the variability and availability of other renewable energy resources (solar and wind) and electricity consumption patterns. This work quantifies the effect of competition for water use between irrigation and hydropower in the future 2050 Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector and under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change projections. It uses the power system eTIMES_PT model to assess the combined effects of climate change on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sectorconsidering changes in irrigation, hydropower, wind and solar PV availability. eTIMES_PT is a linear optimisation model that satisfies electricity demand at minimal total power system cost. Results show that, by 2050, climate change can lead to an increase in annual irrigation water needs up to 12% in Tagus and 19% in Douro watersheds (from 2005 values), with substantially higher values for spring (up to 84%). Combining these increased water needs with the expected reduction in river runoff can lead to a decline in summer and spring hydropower capacity factors from half to three times below current values. By 2050, concurrent water uses under climate change can reduce hydropower generation by 26–56% less than historically observed, mainly in summer and spring. Higher solar PV, complemented with batteries’ electricity storage, can offset the lower hydropower availability, but this will lead to higher electricity prices. Adequate transboundary water management agreements and reducing water losses in irrigation systems will play a key role in mitigating climate impacts in both agriculture and power sector.
- How much extreme weather events have affected European power generation in the past three decades?Publication . Brás, Teresa; Simoes, Sofia; Amorim, Filipa; Fortes, PatriciaABSTRACT: Extreme weather events (EWE) can affect energy supply, particularly when energy systems are significantly reliant on renewable energy sources, highly vulnerable to climate and weather conditions. We combine observational energy data from EUROSTAT with records of EWE, between 1990 and 2019, to evaluate European power plants capacity factors (CF) responses to those events. Using a statistical compositing analysis, we show that years with floods and storms increased annual European hydropower CF by 7 and 5.8%, respectively, compared to non-EWE years, while CF of fossil power plants decreased (-2.8%). Similar behaviours are found for Central and Mediterranean countries. From 1993 to 2004 to 2005-2016 European hydropower tripled during floods and quintupled during storms suggesting that the events are becoming more severe or there is more efficient water use. On the contrary, from 1993 to 2016, in every year with droughts/heatwaves the European hydropower decreased (-6.5%), with a subsequent increase of fossil CF (2.3%). Such behaviour is also observed across Central and Eastern Europe. Cold waves negatively affected solar photovoltaic output at the European level and Central Europe (-5%). Vulnerability of wind power plants to floods is increasing: from 1993 to 2004 to 2005-2016 there is 3-fold decrease in the European wind CF; from one flood year to the following, wind CF decreases in Central (- 1.9%yr- 1) and Eastern Europe (- 3.7%yr- 1). During droughts/heatwaves, wind CF increases in Central Europe (2%yr- 1), but decreases in Mediterranean (- 3%yr- 1). Shifting to renewable energy sources is key to decarbonization. It's crucial understanding the historical impacts of EWE in the power system towards its resilience and stability.