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Optimización del desarrollo de la energia termosolar en españa en el contexto de la transición energética
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
RESUMEN: Este artículo presenta un resumen de los resultados obtenidos al estudiar cuál debe ser la evolución del mix eléctrico en España durante los próximos 30 años si se desea cumplir con determinados escenarios de reducción de las emisiones de CO2 del sector eléctrico en relación a las del año 1990. El estudio se ha realizado usando un algoritmo genético con optimización multiobjetivo. Se han considerado dos escenarios de reducción de emisiones de CO2: 1) escenario moderado del 40% (2030), 60% (2040) y 80% (2050); 2) escenario agresivo del 50% (2030), 75% (2040) y 100% (2050). Los resultados mostrados en este artículo indican que el escenario moderado es factible, sin que ello conlleve altos costes de la electricidad o excesivos vertidos. Una reducción del 80% en las emisiones de CO2 en el año 2050 requerirá un mix eléctrico renovable en un 86.34% y conllevaría un coste aproximado de la electricidad de 47,4 €/MWh. Pero si se desea cumplir el escenario agresivo (mercado eléctrico sin emisiones de CO2 en 2050) el mix eléctrico necesario supondría un coste de 62,9 €/MWh para la electricidad suministrada a la red y unos vertidos de 222,38 TWh frente a una demanda total de 316,55 TWh, lo que supone un excesivo porcentaje de vertidos. Los resultados obtenidos también han mostrado que la única forma de poder obtener un mix eléctrico 100% renovable en 2050 sin unos excesivos vertidos sería disponer de tecnologías competitivas de almacenamiento y gestión a gran escala de la electricidad excedente, porque esto permitiría reducir de forma muy importante la potencia instalada de fotovoltaica, eólica y termosolar, consiguiéndose menores costes de la electricidad y menores vertidos.
ABSTRACT: This paper shows a summary of the results obtained when analysing how the Spanish electricity mix must evolve during next 30 years to fulfil two different scenarios of CO2 emissions reduction in comparison with those in 1990. A multi-objective genetic algorithm has been used to perform the study. Two different scenarios have been analysed: 1) moderate trend of 40% (2030), 60% (2040) y 80% (2050) reduction; 2) aggressive trend of 50% (2030), 75% (2040) and 100% (2050). Results given in this paper show that the moderate trend is feasible regarding both the electricity cost and the curtailments. A reduction of 80% in 2050 would require an 86.34% renewable electricity market with an electricity cost of 47,4 €/MWh. On the other hand, for the fulfilment of the aggressive trend (no CO2 emissions in 2050) the electricity cost and the curtailments would be 62,9 €/MWh and 222,38 TWh, respectively, with a total electricity demand of only 316,55 TWh. This level of curtailments is clearly excessive. The obtained results have also shown that the only way to achieve a 100% renewable electricity market in Spain in 2050 without excessive curtailments would be the use of cost-effective electricity storage technologies because they would allow a significant reduction of the required installed power of photovoltaic, wind and solar thermal electricity plants, while reducing the electricity cost and the curtailments simultaneously.
ABSTRACT: This paper shows a summary of the results obtained when analysing how the Spanish electricity mix must evolve during next 30 years to fulfil two different scenarios of CO2 emissions reduction in comparison with those in 1990. A multi-objective genetic algorithm has been used to perform the study. Two different scenarios have been analysed: 1) moderate trend of 40% (2030), 60% (2040) y 80% (2050) reduction; 2) aggressive trend of 50% (2030), 75% (2040) and 100% (2050). Results given in this paper show that the moderate trend is feasible regarding both the electricity cost and the curtailments. A reduction of 80% in 2050 would require an 86.34% renewable electricity market with an electricity cost of 47,4 €/MWh. On the other hand, for the fulfilment of the aggressive trend (no CO2 emissions in 2050) the electricity cost and the curtailments would be 62,9 €/MWh and 222,38 TWh, respectively, with a total electricity demand of only 316,55 TWh. This level of curtailments is clearly excessive. The obtained results have also shown that the only way to achieve a 100% renewable electricity market in Spain in 2050 without excessive curtailments would be the use of cost-effective electricity storage technologies because they would allow a significant reduction of the required installed power of photovoltaic, wind and solar thermal electricity plants, while reducing the electricity cost and the curtailments simultaneously.
Description
CIES2020 - XVII Congresso Ibérico e XIII Congresso Ibero-americano de Energia Solar
Keywords
Renewable energies Electricity markets CO2 emissions Artificial intelligence
Citation
Blanco J... [et.al.] - Optimización del desarrollo de la energia termosolar en españa en el contexto de la transición energética. In: CIES2020: As Energias Renováveis na Transição Energética: Livro de Comunicações do XVII Congresso Ibérico e XIII Congresso Ibero-americano de Energia Solar. Helder Gonçalves, Manuel Romero (Ed.). Lisboa, Portugal: LNEG, 3-5 Novembro, 2020, p. 39-47
Publisher
LNEG - Laboratório Nacional de Energia e Geologia