The Role of Demand and Vres Flexibility in Carbon-Neutral Power Systems: Insights from Portugal and Spain in Prospective 2050 Scenarios

ABSTRACT: The goal of a carbon-neutral society by 2050 is speeding up the integration of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) in European power systems. For the expected levels of vRES, the adaptation of the demand will be crucial to manage the stochastic behaviour of these technologies. This work evaluates the impact of four prospective 2050 energy mix scenarios in the Iberian electricity market. All scenarios consider near 100% vRES shares. Scenarios that incentivize demand flexibility (S2 and S4) result in the lowest wholesale prices and costs for society. Peak load reduction using demand response occurred in the two scenarios (S1 and S3) with low demand flexibility and high share of renewable generation. S3 is the most unstable leading to the higher wholesale prices. The results highlight that an equilibrium between demand flexibility and investments in the generation side is essential for reducing costs and ensuring stability.

Keywords

Renewable energy sources Variable renewable energy sources Power systems Stability Electrification Carbon neutrality Flexibility markets

URI

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/6076

Citation

Algarvio, H., Couto, A., Lopes, F., Estanqueiro, A., Faia, R., Santos, G., Carvalho, R., Faria, P. & Vale, Z. (2025). The Role of Demand and Vres Flexibility in Carbon-Neutral Power Systems: Insights from Portugal and Spain in Prospective 2050 Scenarios. In: 21st International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM), Lisbon, Portugal, 27-29 May, 2025, pp. 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM64765.2025.11050161