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Iberian Electricity Market Performance under European Energy Transition Scenarios for 2050

2026-06Comunicação em conferência Acesso aberto
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datacite.subject.fosEngenharia e Tecnologia::Engenharia Eletrotécnica, Eletrónica e Informática
datacite.subject.fosEngenharia e Tecnologia::Engenharia Mecânica
datacite.subject.fosEngenharia e Tecnologia::Outras Engenharias e Tecnologias
datacite.subject.sdg07:Energias Renováveis e Acessíveis
datacite.subject.sdg11:Cidades e Comunidades Sustentáveis
datacite.subject.sdg13:Ação Climática
dc.contributor.authorSousa, Vivian
dc.contributor.authorCouto, António
dc.contributor.authorGraça, Pedro
dc.contributor.authorEstanqueiro, Ana
dc.contributor.authorLöffler, Konstantin
dc.contributor.authorMoskalenko, Nikita
dc.date.accessioned2026-09-16T10:42:21Z
dc.date.available2026-09-16T10:42:21Z
dc.date.issued2026-06
dc.description.abstractABSTRACT: The Man0EUvRE project analyses the required energy transition in Europe, extending beyond typical scenarios focused only on renewable integration pace by incorporating key uncertainties such as geopolitical fragmentation, limited cooperation, and technological innovation. This study evaluates the performance of the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL) between 2030 and 2050 under four distinct scenarios. Long-term capacity expansion is modelled with GENeSYS-MOD, while hourly day-ahead market clearing prices are simulated using PyMIBEL-DAM, capturing both strategic investment decisions and operational dynamics. The results highlight strong growth of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) through 2050, particularly solar photovoltaic, and the resulting price cannibalisation that challenges the conomic viability of solar generation in a market environment. Wind generation, in contrast, maintains more stable capture prices showing differences in the market value across vRES technologies. Therefore, a carefully designed transition pathway, by integrating a balanced generation mix, robust flexibility solutions, and reinforced cross-border interconnections between Portugal and Spain, is essential. Such integration will provide the necessary market signals for sustainable decarbonisation of the Iberian power system while ensuring overall system efficiency.eng
dc.identifier.citationSousa, V., Couto, A., Graça, P., Estanqueiro, A., Löffler, K., & Moskalenko, N. (2026). Iberian Electricity Market Performance under European Energy Transition Scenarios for 2050. In: 22nd International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM2026), Trondheim, Norway, 22–24 June, 2026, pp. 1-6. https://doi.org/10.1109/EEM68581.2026.11589851
dc.identifier.doi10.1109/EEM68581.2026.11589851
dc.identifier.isbn979-8-3195-3554-2
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/6458
dc.language.isoeng
dc.peerreviewedyes
dc.publisherIEEE
dc.relationClean Energy Transition Partnership
dc.relationEnergy System Modelling for Transition to a net-Zero 2050 for EU via REPowerEU
dc.relation.hasversionhttps://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/11589851
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subjectRenewable energy
dc.subjectBalancing markets
dc.subjectEnergy modelling
dc.subjectIberian electricity market
dc.subjectMarket simulation
dc.titleIberian Electricity Market Performance under European Energy Transition Scenarios for 2050eng
dc.typeconference paper
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardNumber101069750
oaire.awardNumberCETP/0001/2022
oaire.awardTitleClean Energy Transition Partnership
oaire.awardTitleEnergy System Modelling for Transition to a net-Zero 2050 for EU via REPowerEU
oaire.awardURIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/6260
oaire.awardURIhttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.9/6457
oaire.citation.conferenceDate2026-06-22
oaire.citation.conferencePlaceTrondheim, Norway
oaire.citation.title22nd International Conference on the European Energy Market (EEM2026)
oaire.fundingStreamHORIZON Programme Cofund Actions
oaire.fundingStreamCETP Concurso Transnacional Conjunto 2022
oaire.versionhttp://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85
person.familyNameCouto
person.familyNameEstanqueiro
person.familyNameLöffler
person.givenNameAntónio
person.givenNameAna
person.givenNameKonstantin
person.identifier.ciencia-id2619-80A1-A8AC
person.identifier.ciencia-id7F11-A24D-EE81
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-7368-8817
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-0476-2526
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-5435-1880
person.identifier.ridJ-9752-2012
person.identifier.scopus-author-id19336967700
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationa0c5b011-98c5-49d3-9ac6-ddfb6027f500
relation.isAuthorOfPublication20aa31b3-fa3c-42b7-82a4-e6b91c017f9c
relation.isAuthorOfPublication328ad486-74c0-4376-b29a-168de3a3fd7d
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscoverya0c5b011-98c5-49d3-9ac6-ddfb6027f500
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