ISE - Comunicações em actas de encontros científicos internacionais
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- Decarbonization Transition Pathways and Regional Trends: Insights from One Million StudiesPublication . Bento, Nuno; Alves, Tiago; Ribeiro, Ricardo; Fontes, MargaridaABSTRACT: As global temperatures near critical thresholds and emissions continue to rise, the urgency for strategic, accelerated decarbonization grows. Despite a vast climate mitigation literature, a systematic understanding of actionable pathways remains limited. Here, we apply artificial intelligence to analyze over one million scientific papers (2011–2021), generating a data-driven typology of six archetypal decarbonization pathways: Technology Breakthrough, Electrification of Uses, Integrated Policy, Decarbonization of Electricity, Demand Reduction & Co-benefits, and Land Use & Circularity. Regional patterns show Electrification of Uses prevailing in Europe (EU27), while Technology Breakthrough dominates in China, the US, and Japan. Increasing political and societal resistance to mitigation makes the strategic selection and combination of pathways even more critical. Our analysis highlights key synergies between pathways, the scientific competencies required to support them, and persistent gaps—particularly in Land Use and Circularity. We also compare current climate policy directions with the typology, revealing alignment gaps that may weaken policy effectiveness. This framework enables policymakers to better match strategies with regional capacities and research strengths, offering a more coherent approach to decarbonization. Strengthening the integration of science, technology, and policy is essential to overcome fragmentation and deliver the emissions reductions needed to meet the net-zero climate targets.
- Driving Transformative Change: Assessing the Direction and Design of Decarbonization Policies in the EU, US, China, and JapanPublication . Fontes, Margarida; Sousa, Cristina; Bento, NunoABSTRACT: The transition to low‐carbon economies demands policies that drive both decarbonization and deep socioeconomic transformation. This paper assesses the “transformative potential” of 3,400 decarbonization policies from Europe, the US, China, and Japan. We define transformative potential considering both policy direction – alignment with sustainability goals, and policy design ‐ presence of mechanisms that can induce transformation, such as experimentation, actor diversity, multiscale coordination, and reflexivity. The research shows that when we consider a broad universe of decarbonization policies, transformative potential is still limited: only 20% of policies align with at least one transition pathway and include at least one transformative mechanism; and just 2% include three or more mechanisms. By identifying distinguishing features of these higher transformative potential policies, the paper contributes to understanding how technological, sectoral and contextual factors shape the capacity of policies to enable transformative change.
- From Day-Ahead to a 6-Hour Period-Ahead Market Adapted to the Stochastic Behaviour of Variable Energy Renewable SourcesPublication . Couto, António; Algarvio, Hugo; Lopes, Fernando; Estanqueiro, Ana; Santos, Gabriel; Lezama, Fernando; Faia, Ricardo; Carvalho, Rui; Vale, ZitaABSTRACT: The existing electricity market design challenges the fair and competitive participation of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) due to their weather dependence and limited forecasting accuracy, especially for long-time horizons, as required in the day-ahead market (DAM). These challenges impact market clearing prices and create imbalances, leading to inefficiencies, such as market-splitting events. To enhance the market efficiency and fairness for vRES producers, this work proposes a period-ahead market (PAM) with a 6-hour rolling horizon instead of the traditional 24-hour DAM. A case study of the Iberian electricity market with 2030 energy mix scenarios for Portugal and Spain, demonstrates that, in PAM, vRES producers can reduce wind and solar power forecast errors by over 7 % and 4 %, respectively, when compared with DAM. This leads to a 2 % decrease in electricity prices and an annual reduction of marketsplitting events in 158 hours thus enhancing price harmonization between Portugal and Spain. Additionally, balancing prices also decreased in PAM benefiting the balance responsible parties. The findings highlight that PAM improves the market's efficiency, a key factor in the pathway for the decarbonization of power systems.
- The Role of Demand and Vres Flexibility in Carbon-Neutral Power Systems: Insights from Portugal and Spain in Prospective 2050 ScenariosPublication . Algarvio, Hugo; Couto, António; Lopes, Fernando; Estanqueiro, Ana; Faia, Ricardo; Santos, Gabriel; Carvalho, Rui; Faria, Pedro; Vale, ZitaABSTRACT: The goal of a carbon-neutral society by 2050 is speeding up the integration of variable renewable energy sources (vRES) in European power systems. For the expected levels of vRES, the adaptation of the demand will be crucial to manage the stochastic behaviour of these technologies. This work evaluates the impact of four prospective 2050 energy mix scenarios in the Iberian electricity market. All scenarios consider near 100% vRES shares. Scenarios that incentivize demand flexibility (S2 and S4) result in the lowest wholesale prices and costs for society. Peak load reduction using demand response occurred in the two scenarios (S1 and S3) with low demand flexibility and high share of renewable generation. S3 is the most unstable leading to the higher wholesale prices. The results highlight that an equilibrium between demand flexibility and investments in the generation side is essential for reducing costs and ensuring stability.