ER - Artigos em revistas internacionais
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Browsing ER - Artigos em revistas internacionais by Subject "Carbon neutrality"
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- Competing water uses between agriculture and energy: Quantifying future climate change impacts for the Portuguese power sectorPublication . Fortes, Patricia; Simoes, Sofia; Brás, Teresa; Amorim, FilipaABSTRACT: Climate change may increase water needs for irrigation in southern Europe competing with other water uses, such as hydropower, which may likely be impacted by lower precipitation. Climate change will also potentially affect the variability and availability of other renewable energy resources (solar and wind) and electricity consumption patterns. This work quantifies the effect of competition for water use between irrigation and hydropower in the future 2050 Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector and under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change projections. It uses the power system eTIMES_PT model to assess the combined effects of climate change on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sectorconsidering changes in irrigation, hydropower, wind and solar PV availability. eTIMES_PT is a linear optimisation model that satisfies electricity demand at minimal total power system cost. Results show that, by 2050, climate change can lead to an increase in annual irrigation water needs up to 12% in Tagus and 19% in Douro watersheds (from 2005 values), with substantially higher values for spring (up to 84%). Combining these increased water needs with the expected reduction in river runoff can lead to a decline in summer and spring hydropower capacity factors from half to three times below current values. By 2050, concurrent water uses under climate change can reduce hydropower generation by 26–56% less than historically observed, mainly in summer and spring. Higher solar PV, complemented with batteries’ electricity storage, can offset the lower hydropower availability, but this will lead to higher electricity prices. Adequate transboundary water management agreements and reducing water losses in irrigation systems will play a key role in mitigating climate impacts in both agriculture and power sector.
- How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for PortugalPublication . Fortes, Patricia; Simoes, Sofia; Amorim, Filipa; Siggini, Gildas; Sessa, Valentina; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Carvalho, Silvia; Mujtaba, Babar; Diogo, Paulo; Assoumou, EdiABSTRACT: Climate change will impact renewable resources and electricity demand, usually not jointly considered when designing future decarbonized power systems. This paper assesses how sensitive the Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector is to climate change by 2050 and what are the implications for the formally approved Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. The future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydropower and electricity demand response to temperature are estimated for 22 climate projections along the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5. The eTIMES_PT optimization model is used to assess its combined impact on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sector by 2050. Results show that climate change lowers hydropower generation by 20% (in median terms). Improving spatial and temporal resolution and including future climate patterns, results also in lower cost-effectiveness of solar photovoltaic vis-a-vis the Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. While future climate does not impact onshore wind production, offshore wind power generation is positively affected, being a climate-resilient carbon-neutral option for Portugal. Annual electricity unitary costs at final users (excluding taxes and levies) only increase up to 4% with climate change, but seasonal costs have higher variability. This analysis highlights that climate change affects the cost-optimal annual carbon-neutral power sector and needs to be included in energy planning.
- The CO2NSTRUCT European project: Modelling the role of Circular Economy in construction value chains for a carbon-neutral EuropePublication . Oikonomou, Theoni I.; Karytsas, Spyridon; Karytsas, Constantine; Simoes, Sofia; Calvo, Oscar Seco; Egido, M.N. Sánchez; Castro, S. Soutullo; Zerbino, Pierluigi; Aloini, Davide; Genovese, Andrea; Bimpizas-Pinis, Meletios; Slabik, Simon; Lima, Ana TeresaABSTRACT: Linear climate mitigation models look into aggregated economic sectors and model greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions disregarding downstream value chains, making particular sectors accountable for downstream (or upstream) GHG emissions. Hence, the present climate mitigation models inconsistently account for indirect GHG emissions; underrepresent upstream and downstream value chains; do not address Circular Economy (CE) practices; do not cover resource consumption, thus not considering materials' circularity. To provide curated policy support for decision-making for carbon neutrality and other Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), models need to shift from linear to circular. To achieve this, a link between energy-climate mitigation modelling and cradle-to-cradle assessment CE analytical tools must be established. This is the core issue covered in the CO2NSTRUCT Horizon project (2022-2026). CO2NSTRUCT proposes a framework to supplement the well-established JRC-EU-TIMES model, using a highly comprehensive technological representation with CE measures. The framework will apply CE measures to the value chain of six carbon-intensive construction materials (i.e., cement, steel, brick, glass, wood, and insulation materials) and will provide new components to the JRC-EU-TIMES model, including citizen behaviour; societal impacts; rebound effects; supply and value chains. The results will be used for policy approaches integrating CE into climate change mitigation actions.
- Will climate mitigation ambitions lead to carbon neutrality? An analysis of the local-level plans of 327 cities in the EUPublication . Salvia, Monica; Reckien, Diana; Pietrapertosa, Filomena; Eckersley, Peter; Spyridaki, Niki-Artemis; Krook-Riekkola, Anna; Olazabal, Marta; Hurtado, Sonia De Gregorio; Simoes, Sofia; Geneletti, Davide; Viguie, Vincent; Fokaides, Paris; Ioannou, Byron I.; Flamos, Alexandros; Csete, Mária; Buzási, Attila; Orru, Hans; Boer, Cheryl de; Foley, Aoife; Rižnar, Klavdija; Matosović, Marko; Balzan, Mario V.; Smigaj, Magdalena; Baštáková, Viera; Streberova, Eva; Šel, Nataša Belšak; Coste, Lana; Tardieu, Léa; Altenburg, Corinna; Lorencová, Eliska Krkoška; Orru, Kati; Wejs, Anja; Feliu, Efren; Church, Jon Marco; Grafakos, Stelios; Vasilie, Sergiu; Paspaldzhiev, Ivan; Heidrich, OliverABSTRACT: Cities across the globe recognise their role in climate mitigation and are acting to reduce carbon emissions. Knowing whether cities set ambitious climate and energy targets is critical for determining their contribution towards the global 1.5 °C target, partly because it helps to identify areas where further action is necessary. This paper presents a comparative analysis of the mitigation targets of 327 European cities, as declared in their local climate plans. The sample encompasses over 25% of the EU population and includes cities of all sizes across all Member States, plus the UK. The study analyses whether the type of plan, city size, membership of climate networks, and its regional location are associated with different levels of mitigation ambition. Results reveal that 78% of the cities have a GHG emissions reduction target. However, with an average target of 47%, European cities are not on track to reach the Paris Agreement: they need to roughly double their ambitions and efforts. Some cities are ambitious, e.g. 25% of our sample (81) aim to reach carbon neutrality, with the earliest target date being 2020.90% of these cities are members of the Climate Alliance and 75% of the Covenant of Mayors. City size is the strongest predictor for carbon neutrality, whilst climate network(s) membership, combining adaptation and mitigation into a single strategy, and local motivation also play a role. The methods, data, results and analysis of this study can serve as a reference and baseline for tracking climate mitigation ambitions across European and global cities.