ER - Artigos em revistas internacionais
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- Adaptation to climate change in cities of Mediterranean EuropePublication . Pietrapertosa, Filomena; Olazabal, Marta; Simoes, Sofia; Salvia, Monica; Fokaides, Paris; Ioannou, Byron I.; Viguie, Vincent; Spyridaki, Niki-Artemis; Hurtado, Sonia De Gregorio; Geneletti, Davide; Heidrich, Oliver; Tardieu, Léa; Feliu, Efren; Rižnar, Klavdija; Matosović, Marko; Balzan, Mario V.; Flamos, Alexandros; Sel, Natasa Belsak; Reckien, DianaABSTRACT: Cities across Mediterranean Europe face common climatic threats. They are highly vulnerable and very likely to suffer losses and damages due to heat waves, droughts, wildfires, landslides, and extreme coastal events. To this date, however, there is no systematic understanding of how cities in Mediterranean Europe are preparing to adapt to these impacts. To address this question, we analyse local adaptation plans in 73 cities located in 51 regions across 9 European countries along the Mediterranean Sea (France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Portugal, Croatia, Slovenia, Cyprus and Malta). We also investigate upper levels of planning to understand the influence of policy environments. Across the sample, 67 % of regions have adopted a plan, but only 30 % of the cities. The most common climate-related hazards these cities prepare for are extreme temperatures and rainfall, followed by drought and water scarcity, as well as floods and landslides. Without legal obligations, neither regional nor national adaptation policy frameworks seem to influence the development of urban plans. In some cases, cities are ahead of national policy. This paper sheds light on the progress of local adaptation planning in Mediterranean Europe and paves the way for further research in this climate-threatened geographical area.
- Addressing rising energy needs of megacities : case study of Greater CairoPublication . Alla, Sara Abd; Simoes, Sofia; Bianco, VincenzoABSTRACT: Urban energy system modelling allows megacities to assess their future development and to draw sustainable pathways to meet the rapidly increasing energy needs. This paper elaborates three different scenarios for energy transition in Greater Cairo with particular emphasis on the impact of lowering the share of inhabitants living in informal settlements. A city-specific TIMES energy system model is used to investigate how energy supply and demand will evolve between 2015 and 2050. Besides, the impacts in final energy consumption and CO2 emissions are investigated considering different socio-economic pathways. The scenarios show that the long-term cost-efficiency optimization leads to the decarbonization of the power sector even in the absence of climate constraints. Climate policies are modeled to achieve by 2050 a carbon emissions reduction of 50% below the 2015 baseline. The results indicate that the implementation of current urban plans will double the carbon emissions per capita if no mitigation policies are adopted. The urban expansion programs need to take into consideration the energy-environment economic nexus and to be coupled with climate mitigation policies to contain the rising carbon emissions.
- Advancing participatory energy systems modellingPublication . McGookin, Connor; Süsser, Diana; Xexakis, Georgios; Trutnevyte, Evelina; McDowall, Will; Nikas, Alexandros; Koasidis, Konstantinos; Few, Sheridan; Andersen, Per Dannemand; Demski, Christina; Fortes, Patricia; Simoes, Sofia; Bishop, Christopher; Rogan, Fionn; Ó Gallachóir, BrianABSTRACT: Energy system models are important tools to guide our understanding of current and future carbon dioxide emissions as well as to inform strategies for emissions reduction. These models offer a vital evidence base that increasingly underpins energy and climate policies in many countries. In light of this important role in policy formation, there is growing interest in, and demands for, energy modellers to integrate more diverse perspectives on possible and preferred futures into the modelling process. The main purpose of this is to ensure that the resultant policy decisions are both fairer and better reflect people's concerns and preferences. However, while there has been a focus in the literature on efforts to bring societal dimensions into modelling tools, there remains a limited number of examples of well-structured participatory energy systems modelling processes and no available how-to guidance. This paper addresses this gap by providing good practice guidance for integrating stakeholder and public involvement in energy systems modelling based on the reflections of a diverse range of experts from this emergent field. The framework outlined in this paper offers multiple entry points for modellers to incorporate participatory elements either throughout the process or in individual stages. Recognising the messiness of both fields (energy systems modelling and participatory research), the good practice principles are not comprehensive or set in stone, but rather pose important questions to steer this process. Finally, the reflections on key issues provide a summary of the crucial challenges and important areas for future research in this critical field.
- Analyzing the Applicability of Random Forest-Based Models for the Forecast of Run-of-River Hydropower GenerationPublication . Sessa, Valentina; Bossy, Mireille; Simoes, SofiaABSTRACT: Analyzing the impact of climate variables into the operational planning processes is essential for the robust implementation of a sustainable power system. This paper deals with the modeling of the run-of-river hydropower production based on climate variables on the European scale. A better understanding of future run-of-river generation patterns has important implications for power systems with increasing shares of solar and wind power. Run-of-river plants are less intermittent than solar or wind but also less dispatchable than dams with storage capacity. However, translating time series of climate data (precipitation and air temperature) into time series of run-of-river-based hydropower generation is not an easy task as it is necessary to capture the complex relationship between the availability of water and the generation of electricity. This task is also more complex when performed for a large interconnected area. In this work, a model is built for several European countries by using machine learning techniques. In particular, we compare the accuracy of models based on the Random Forest algorithm and show that a more accurate model is obtained when a finer spatial resolution of climate data is introduced. We then discuss the practical applicability of a machine learning model for the medium term forecasts and show that some very context specific but influential events are hard to capture.
- Circular and sustainable design : a systemic design model for the transition to a circular and sustainable economyPublication . Camocho, David; Vicente, José; Ferreira, Ana MargaridaABSTRACT: Successful and innovative design practices towards the development of more circular and sustainable products and services that are aligned with the current and future needs of our society rely on efficient practices that combine three main levels in the design and development process. The design management level which is responsible for establishing, planning and managing the development of design projects. The business level, which is focused on the feasibility and effectiveness of the project and its results in the short and long term. Lastly, the design level that is responsible for the implementation and development of circular design projects. This paper is part of a PhD research focused on supporting an innovative and efficient transition to a circular economy and sustainability through design. It describes the basis of a design model under development based on the design thinking process and an expert's survey carried at an international level and the research activities undertaken. It integrates the three levels in a systemic perspective, guiding the process and establishing the link between the needs of the design and development teams in terms of the definition of circularity and sustainability considerations and strategies, objectives and the activities, resources and practical tools needed to support the circular design projects.
- Climate mitigation in the Mediterranean Europe: An assessment of regional and city-level plansPublication . Salvia, Monica; Olazabal, Marta; Fokaides, Paris; Tardieu, Léa; Simoes, Sofia; Geneletti, Davide; de Gregorio Hurtado, Sonia; Viguie, Vincent; Spyridaki, Niki-Artemis; Pietrapertosa, Filomena; Ioannou, Byron I.; Matosović, Marko; Flamos, Alexandros; Balzan, Mario V.; Feliu, Efren; Rižnar, Klavdija; Belšak Šel, Nataša; Heidrich, Oliver; Reckien, DianaIn Europe, regions in the Mediterranean area share common characteristics in terms of high sensitivity to climate change impacts. Does this translate into specificities regarding climate action that could arise from these Mediterranean characteristics? This paper sheds light on regional and local climate mitigation actions of the Mediterranean Europe, focusing on the plans to reduce greenhouse gases emissions in a representative sample of 51 regions and 73 cities across 9 Mediterranean countries (Croatia, Cyprus, France, Greece, Italy, Malta, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain). The study investigates: (i) the availability of local and regional mitigation plans, (ii) their goals in term of greenhouse gas emissions reduction targets on the short and medium-long term, and (iii) the impact of transnational climate networks on such local and regional climate mitigation planning. Results of this study indicate an uneven and fragmented planning, that shows a Mediterranean West-East divide, and a link with population size. However, overall, both regional and city action seem insufficiently ambitious with regards to meeting the Paris Agreement, at least at city level. While national frameworks are currently weak in influencing regional and local actions, transnational networks seem to be engaging factors for commitment (at city level) and ambitiousness (at regional level). The uneven and fragmented progress revealed by this study, does not align with the characteristics shared by investigated regions and cities in terms of environmental, socio-political, climatic and economic conditions. The results support the call of a common green deal at the Mediterranean level to further address specific Mediterranean challenges and related needs. This will allow to capitalise on available resources, generate local-specific knowledge, build capacities, and support Mediterranean regions and cities in preparing the next generation of more ambitious mitigation plans.
- Climate mitigation models need to become circular : let's start with the construction sectorPublication . Lima, Ana Teresa; Simoes, Sofia; Aloini, Davide; Zerbino, Pierluigi; Oikonomou, Theoni I.; Karytsas, Spyridon; Karytsas, Constantine; Calvo, Oscar Seco; Porcar, Beatriz; Herrera, I.; Slabik, Simon; Dürr, Hans H.; Genovese, Andrea; Bimpizas-Pinis, MeletiosABSTRACT: Circular Economy (CE) is presented today as the way forward to achieving a sustainable and carbon-neutral society. Yet, circularity assessment tools such as Life Cycle Assessment (LCA), Material Flow Analysis (MFA), and Supply and value-chain analysis are currently disconnected from the models used to advise bodies that steer sustainability-driven policies like the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Climate mitigation models (henceforth climate models) are used in policy discussions and international negotiations to track GHG emissions and identify pathways towards a low-carbon economy. One example is the JRC-EU-TIMES model developed by the International Energy Agency or the PRIMES model, which is the backbone of the energy and climate policy of the European Union (EU). These climate models are inherently suitable for representing only linear patterns of economic activity, where GHG emissions are modelled per economic sector (primary energy resource extraction, final energy generation, energy, and materials used in industry, buildings, etc.).
- Climate proofing the renewable electricity deployment in EuropePublication . Simões, Sofia; Amorim, Filipa; Siggini, Gildas; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Sessa, Valentina; Carvalho, S.C.P.; Mraihi, Hamza; Assoumou, EdiClimate and weather conditions influence energy demand. as well as electricity generation, especially due to the strong development of renewable energy. The changes of the European energy mix, together with ongoing climate change, raise a number of questions on impact on the electricity sector. In this paper we present results for the whole of the European power sector regarding on how considering current and future climate variability affects the results of a TIMES energy system model for the whole European power sector (eTIMES-EU) up to 2050. For each member-state we consider six climate projections to generate future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydro power generation. as well as temperature impact on electricity demand for heating and cooling. These are input into the eTIMES-EU model to assess how climate affects the optimal operation of the power system and if current EU-wide RES and emissions target deployment may be affected. Results show that although at EU-wide level there are no substantial changes, there are significant differences in countries RES deployment (especially wind and solar) and in electricity trade.
- Competing water uses between agriculture and energy: Quantifying future climate change impacts for the Portuguese power sectorPublication . Fortes, Patricia; Simoes, Sofia; Brás, Teresa; Amorim, FilipaABSTRACT: Climate change may increase water needs for irrigation in southern Europe competing with other water uses, such as hydropower, which may likely be impacted by lower precipitation. Climate change will also potentially affect the variability and availability of other renewable energy resources (solar and wind) and electricity consumption patterns. This work quantifies the effect of competition for water use between irrigation and hydropower in the future 2050 Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector and under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change projections. It uses the power system eTIMES_PT model to assess the combined effects of climate change on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sectorconsidering changes in irrigation, hydropower, wind and solar PV availability. eTIMES_PT is a linear optimisation model that satisfies electricity demand at minimal total power system cost. Results show that, by 2050, climate change can lead to an increase in annual irrigation water needs up to 12% in Tagus and 19% in Douro watersheds (from 2005 values), with substantially higher values for spring (up to 84%). Combining these increased water needs with the expected reduction in river runoff can lead to a decline in summer and spring hydropower capacity factors from half to three times below current values. By 2050, concurrent water uses under climate change can reduce hydropower generation by 26–56% less than historically observed, mainly in summer and spring. Higher solar PV, complemented with batteries’ electricity storage, can offset the lower hydropower availability, but this will lead to higher electricity prices. Adequate transboundary water management agreements and reducing water losses in irrigation systems will play a key role in mitigating climate impacts in both agriculture and power sector.
- Demand-side strategies key for mitigating material impacts of energy transitionsPublication . Creutzig, Felix; Simoes, Sofia; Leipold, Sina; Berrill, Peter; Azevedo, Isabel; Edelenbosch, Oreane; Fishman, Tomer; Haberl, Helmut; Hertwich, Edgar; Krey, Volker; Lima, Ana Teresa; Makov, Tamar; Mastrucci, Alessio; Milojevic-Dupont, Nikola; Nachtigall, Florian; Pauliuk, Stefan; Silva, Mafalda; Verdolini, Elena; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wagner, Felix; Wiedenhofer, Dominik; Wilson, CharlieABSTRACT: As fossil fuels are phased out in favour of renewable energy, electric cars and other low-carbon technologies, the future clean energy system is likely to require less overall mining than the current fossil-fuelled system. However, material extraction and waste flows, new infrastructure development, land-use change, and the provision of new types of goods and services associated with decarbonization will produce social and environmental pressures at localized to regional scales. Demand-side solutions can achieve the important outcome of reducing both the scale of the climate challenge and material resource requirements. Interdisciplinary systems modelling and analysis are needed to identify opportunities and trade-offs for demand-led mitigation strategies that explicitly consider planetary boundaries associated with Earth's material resources. The material-intensive transition to low-carbon energy will impose environmental and social burdens on local and regional communities. Demand-side strategies can help to achieve higher well-being at lower levels of energy or material use, and an interdisciplinary approach in future research is essential.