ISE - Artigos em revistas internacionais
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Browsing ISE - Artigos em revistas internacionais by Subject "Artificial neural networks"
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- Enhancing wind power forecast accuracy using the weather research and forecasting numerical model-based features and artificial neuronal networksPublication . Couto, António; Estanqueiro, AnaABSTRACT: Forecasting with accuracy the quantity of energy produced by wind power plants is crucial to enabling its optimal integration into power systems and electricity markets. Despite the remarkable improvements in the wind forecasting systems in recent years, large errors can still be observed, especially for longer time horizons. This work focuses on identifying new numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based features aiming to improve the overall quality of wind power forecasts. The methodology also incorporates a sequential forward feature selection algorithm. This algorithm was designed to select iteratively the meteorological features which minimize the wind forecast errors. The methodology was applied separately to seven wind parks in Portugal with different climate characteristics. The proposed approach allowed a reduction between 13% and 37% in the root mean square errors of wind power forecasts, compared with a baseline scenario. While the meteorological features identified for each wind park showed similarities within regions with analogous wind power generation profiles, each wind park required specific meteorological parameters as input data to obtain the best performance. Thus, the results show to be crucial to select the most relevant features of a specific site to maximize the accuracy of a wind power forecast.
- Influence of Increasing Renewable Power Penetration on the Long-Term Iberian Electricity Market PricesPublication . Leal, Pedro; Castro, Rui; Lopes, FernandoABSTRACT: n recent years, there has been a significant increase in investment in renewable energy sources, leading to the decarbonization of the electricity sector. Accordingly, a key concern is the influence of this process on future electricity market prices, which are expected to decrease with the increasing generation of renewable power. This is important for both current and future investors, as it can affect profitability. To address these concerns, a long-term analysis is proposed here to examine the influence of the future electricity mix on Iberian electricity prices in 2030. In this study, we employed artificial intelligence forecasting models that incorporated the main electricity price-driven components of MIBEL, providing accurate predictions for the real operation of the market. These can be extrapolated into the future to predict electricity prices in a scenario with high renewable power penetration. The results, obtained considering a framework featuring an increase in the penetration of renewables into MIBEL of up to 80% in 2030, showed that electricity prices are expected to decrease by around 50% in 2030 when compared to 2019, and there will be a new pattern of electricity prices throughout the year due to the uneven distribution of renewable electricity. The study's findings are relevant for ongoing research on the unique challenges of energy markets with high levels of renewable generation.