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- Demand-side strategies key for mitigating material impacts of energy transitionsPublication . Creutzig, Felix; Simoes, Sofia; Leipold, Sina; Berrill, Peter; Azevedo, Isabel; Edelenbosch, Oreane; Fishman, Tomer; Haberl, Helmut; Hertwich, Edgar; Krey, Volker; Lima, Ana Teresa; Makov, Tamar; Mastrucci, Alessio; Milojevic-Dupont, Nikola; Nachtigall, Florian; Pauliuk, Stefan; Silva, Mafalda; Verdolini, Elena; Van Vuuren, Detlef; Wagner, Felix; Wiedenhofer, Dominik; Wilson, CharlieABSTRACT: As fossil fuels are phased out in favour of renewable energy, electric cars and other low-carbon technologies, the future clean energy system is likely to require less overall mining than the current fossil-fuelled system. However, material extraction and waste flows, new infrastructure development, land-use change, and the provision of new types of goods and services associated with decarbonization will produce social and environmental pressures at localized to regional scales. Demand-side solutions can achieve the important outcome of reducing both the scale of the climate challenge and material resource requirements. Interdisciplinary systems modelling and analysis are needed to identify opportunities and trade-offs for demand-led mitigation strategies that explicitly consider planetary boundaries associated with Earth's material resources. The material-intensive transition to low-carbon energy will impose environmental and social burdens on local and regional communities. Demand-side strategies can help to achieve higher well-being at lower levels of energy or material use, and an interdisciplinary approach in future research is essential.
- Circular economy modelling for climate change mitigation: A review of empirical evidence and modelling approachesPublication . Zanon Zotin, Marianne; Fortes, Patricia; Corbier, Darius; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Edelenbosch, Oreane; van Engelenburg, Martijn; Hauenstein, Christian; Hertwich, Edgar; Jiang, Meng; von Köckritz, Luja; Magalar, Leticia; Pauliuk, Stefan; Straub, Lucas; Vélez-Henao, Johan; van Vuuren, DetlefABSTRACT: Circular economy (CE) measures can play a role in reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, especially in material- and energy-intensive sectors. Yet, their representation in GHG mitigation pathways is still not well captured in climate change mitigation models. To support modelling efforts towards better CE representation, two reviews were conducted: (1) the empirical evidence on the GHG mitigation potential of CE strategies across material supply and demand sectors and R-strategies, and (2) the current modelling approaches used to assess these strategies. Findings show that, while most studies focus on recycling, increasing attention is given to upstream strategies such as material substitution, design for reuse, and service-based business models. Important gaps remain, particularly around Refuse, Rethink, behavioural factors, rebound effects, as well as synergies and trade-offs with climate policy. Industrial ecology methods provide a detailed material flows representation but lack feedback mechanisms and economic dynamics. In contrast, GHG mitigation models offer broader system coverage but often simplify materials and CE dynamics. Better alignment between methods is needed, including shared definitions, improved data, and more collaboration across modelling communities. Strengthening the modelling of CE strategies can support policy-relevant assessments of CE’s contribution to achieving global climate goals.