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Browsing ER - Artigos em revistas internacionais by Author "Amorim, Filipa"
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- Climate proofing the renewable electricity deployment in EuropePublication . Simões, Sofia; Amorim, Filipa; Siggini, Gildas; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Sessa, Valentina; Carvalho, S.C.P.; Mraihi, Hamza; Assoumou, EdiClimate and weather conditions influence energy demand. as well as electricity generation, especially due to the strong development of renewable energy. The changes of the European energy mix, together with ongoing climate change, raise a number of questions on impact on the electricity sector. In this paper we present results for the whole of the European power sector regarding on how considering current and future climate variability affects the results of a TIMES energy system model for the whole European power sector (eTIMES-EU) up to 2050. For each member-state we consider six climate projections to generate future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydro power generation. as well as temperature impact on electricity demand for heating and cooling. These are input into the eTIMES-EU model to assess how climate affects the optimal operation of the power system and if current EU-wide RES and emissions target deployment may be affected. Results show that although at EU-wide level there are no substantial changes, there are significant differences in countries RES deployment (especially wind and solar) and in electricity trade.
- Competing water uses between agriculture and energy: Quantifying future climate change impacts for the Portuguese power sectorPublication . Fortes, Patricia; Simoes, Sofia; Brás, Teresa; Amorim, FilipaABSTRACT: Climate change may increase water needs for irrigation in southern Europe competing with other water uses, such as hydropower, which may likely be impacted by lower precipitation. Climate change will also potentially affect the variability and availability of other renewable energy resources (solar and wind) and electricity consumption patterns. This work quantifies the effect of competition for water use between irrigation and hydropower in the future 2050 Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector and under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate change projections. It uses the power system eTIMES_PT model to assess the combined effects of climate change on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sectorconsidering changes in irrigation, hydropower, wind and solar PV availability. eTIMES_PT is a linear optimisation model that satisfies electricity demand at minimal total power system cost. Results show that, by 2050, climate change can lead to an increase in annual irrigation water needs up to 12% in Tagus and 19% in Douro watersheds (from 2005 values), with substantially higher values for spring (up to 84%). Combining these increased water needs with the expected reduction in river runoff can lead to a decline in summer and spring hydropower capacity factors from half to three times below current values. By 2050, concurrent water uses under climate change can reduce hydropower generation by 26–56% less than historically observed, mainly in summer and spring. Higher solar PV, complemented with batteries’ electricity storage, can offset the lower hydropower availability, but this will lead to higher electricity prices. Adequate transboundary water management agreements and reducing water losses in irrigation systems will play a key role in mitigating climate impacts in both agriculture and power sector.
- How much extreme weather events have affected European power generation in the past three decades?Publication . Brás, Teresa; Simoes, Sofia; Amorim, Filipa; Fortes, PatriciaABSTRACT: Extreme weather events (EWE) can affect energy supply, particularly when energy systems are significantly reliant on renewable energy sources, highly vulnerable to climate and weather conditions. We combine observational energy data from EUROSTAT with records of EWE, between 1990 and 2019, to evaluate European power plants capacity factors (CF) responses to those events. Using a statistical compositing analysis, we show that years with floods and storms increased annual European hydropower CF by 7 and 5.8%, respectively, compared to non-EWE years, while CF of fossil power plants decreased (-2.8%). Similar behaviours are found for Central and Mediterranean countries. From 1993 to 2004 to 2005-2016 European hydropower tripled during floods and quintupled during storms suggesting that the events are becoming more severe or there is more efficient water use. On the contrary, from 1993 to 2016, in every year with droughts/heatwaves the European hydropower decreased (-6.5%), with a subsequent increase of fossil CF (2.3%). Such behaviour is also observed across Central and Eastern Europe. Cold waves negatively affected solar photovoltaic output at the European level and Central Europe (-5%). Vulnerability of wind power plants to floods is increasing: from 1993 to 2004 to 2005-2016 there is 3-fold decrease in the European wind CF; from one flood year to the following, wind CF decreases in Central (- 1.9%yr- 1) and Eastern Europe (- 3.7%yr- 1). During droughts/heatwaves, wind CF increases in Central Europe (2%yr- 1), but decreases in Mediterranean (- 3%yr- 1). Shifting to renewable energy sources is key to decarbonization. It's crucial understanding the historical impacts of EWE in the power system towards its resilience and stability.
- How sensitive is a carbon-neutral power sector to climate change? The interplay between hydro, solar and wind for PortugalPublication . Fortes, Patricia; Simoes, Sofia; Amorim, Filipa; Siggini, Gildas; Sessa, Valentina; Saint-Drenan, Yves-Marie; Carvalho, Silvia; Mujtaba, Babar; Diogo, Paulo; Assoumou, EdiABSTRACT: Climate change will impact renewable resources and electricity demand, usually not jointly considered when designing future decarbonized power systems. This paper assesses how sensitive the Portuguese carbon-neutral power sector is to climate change by 2050 and what are the implications for the formally approved Portuguese Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. The future capacity factors for wind, solar and hydropower and electricity demand response to temperature are estimated for 22 climate projections along the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5. The eTIMES_PT optimization model is used to assess its combined impact on the cost-optimal configuration of the power sector by 2050. Results show that climate change lowers hydropower generation by 20% (in median terms). Improving spatial and temporal resolution and including future climate patterns, results also in lower cost-effectiveness of solar photovoltaic vis-a-vis the Carbon Neutrality Roadmap. While future climate does not impact onshore wind production, offshore wind power generation is positively affected, being a climate-resilient carbon-neutral option for Portugal. Annual electricity unitary costs at final users (excluding taxes and levies) only increase up to 4% with climate change, but seasonal costs have higher variability. This analysis highlights that climate change affects the cost-optimal annual carbon-neutral power sector and needs to be included in energy planning.
- Seasonal Forecast Climate Data and Hydropower Production in the Douro Basin, in PortugalPublication . Diogo, Paulo; Beça, Pedro; Simoes, Sofia; Amorim, Filipa; Mujtaba, BabarABSTRACT: The project CLIM2POWER aims at developing a climate service including state-of-the art seasonal climate forecasts in the planning of the operation of the power systems. This work presents part of the project, addressing the forecasting of the hydropower generation in a case study area, the Portuguese part of the transboundary Douro River basin. Rainfall-runoff modelling was performed on a daily scale using three ensemble members of seasonal climate data (six months) for Portuguese territory crossed with three daily inflow scenarios from Spanish territory defined according to historical observed data. The obtained results reflect the fact that seasonal climate forecast present a wide variation of scenarios and also the fact that hydropower production in Portuguese territory is highly dependent on transboundary inflows. On the other hand, the implemented approach successfully produced consistent runoff and hydropower production results although improvements on the identification of the most probable scenarios are yet required.
- Water availability and water usage solutions for electrolysis in hydrogen productionPublication . Simoes, Sofia; Catarino, Justina; Picado, Ana; Lopes, Tiago; Di Berardino, Santino; Amorim, Filipa; Girio, Francisco; Rangel, C. M.; Ponce Leao, Maria TeresaABSTRACT: Europe is committed to a new growth strategy with no net greenhouse gases emissions by 2050, where hydrogen has a clear role to play. Portugal's strategy for H2 sets public policies promoting an industry focused on the hydrogen value chain. Considering the production of green hydrogen from renewable sources is key, water electrolysis becomes a priority, and with it, the need to assess the suitability of water sources, which is determined by both quantitative and qualitative factors. This work presents a new approach to assess the suitability of water sources for hydrogen production via water electrolysis by applying a Sustainable Value Methodology for decision-making support, combining economic, environmental and social criteria. The approach is applied to two different sites in Portugal: a semi-urban location on the Atlantic coast (site A) and a rural area far from the coast (site B). For both sites, water sources are evaluated regarding water availability, quality, transport options, abstraction costs, treatment needs and regulation (including environmental constraints) and social acceptance. The resulting sustainable value indicator, aggregator of different levels of information, enables a relative quantitative comparison of the performance of different water sources for electrolysis and the involved costs. It is found that the public grid water is the most suited source of water for electrolysis due to lower risk of supply, lower costs and avoids complex permitting processes. Likewise, seawater and wastewater treatment plant effluent (only in site A) showed to be possible water sources where the factors most affecting suitability are transport costs for water and waste disposal from water treatment.